Hey, OBJ is headed to L.A.!!! What a day, what a day! Or, is it?
What exactly should fantasy managers expect out of Odell Beckham Jr. with the juggernaut Rams offense?
Will Beckham be like Sammy Watkins on his various different stops? (Plays when healthy, but minimally productive.) Will he be Josh Gordon with the Patriots, Seahawks or Chiefs? (Invisible were it not for his name.) Will he just be the Rams’ newest version of DeSean Jackson? (An isolated deep threat of minimal importance.) Or will he be Randy Moss? (Recapturing his former glory in a new, more friendly setting.)
We don’t think he will be another Jackson. Beckham is younger, has always been more versatile, and if the Rams wanted another Jackson they would have just kept Jackson, rather than cutting him.
We don’t think he will be as invisible as Gordon, whose one good season was so long ago (2013) it was before Beckham entered the league (2014). And Beckham wasn’t just a one-season wonder, he strung together three excellent seasons with the Giants to kick off his career.
That leaves us with Moss or Watkins. Since Moss is a unicorn, we’re not going to bet on Beckham repeating such a rare feat. Rather, we think he will just be OK, which puts him in Watkins territory.
That’s not great for fantasy managers with Beckham on their rosters. But it could be worse for those who have Van Jefferson, with Beckham stealing playing time from the second-year receiver, just as Watkins has taken snaps away from other potential young talent such as Mecole Hardman in Kansas City, and now Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman in Baltimore.
Beckham normally lines up on the outside. With Cooper Kupp entrenched in the slot for the Rams, that leaves Robert Woods and Jefferson as the two who could see a decrease in snaps or targets.
The Rams are gunning for a Super Bowl this season, so they’re aren’t going to prioritize Jefferson’s maturation. They’re going to lean on the veteran Woods. You can see that is current snap counts — Woods has taken 92.5 percent of offensive snaps, Jefferson 78.2.
So how should fantasy owners react? First, don’t panic if you have Jefferson. In fact, he might see this as a challenge, and that would work to your favor — particularly this week.
Beckham won’t play, but Jefferson knows he is on the way. He could turn in an extra-zesty performance Monday against the 49ers. The better he plays, the harder it will be for Beckham to eventually bump him.
Also, it is already midseason on the NFL schedule. Beckham isn’t going to walk in and have immediate command of the playbook. It will take him some time to catch up to the language and get in sync with QB Matthew Stafford.
But before you worry about the future, if you have Jefferson and are looking for a WR3 or Flex option this week, start up the Van.
BIG WEEKS
Carson Wentz QB, Colts, vs. Jaguars (FanDuel $7,500/DraftKings $5,900)
Outside of last week’s outlier vs. the Bills, the Jags have allowed at least 18.5 points to opposing QBs in six of their other seven games.
D’Ernest Johnson RB, Browns, at Patriots (FD $5,400/DK $4,700)
Primary RB Nick Chubb and reserve RB Demetric Felton have been on the COVID list all week, and they were ruled out on Friday. RB Kareem Hunt is still out, so Johnson could duplicate his Week 7 volume.
Mark Ingram RB, Saints, at Titans (FD $5,500/DK $4,500)
Alvin Kamara has been ruled out with a knee issue. Expect Ingram to absorb the lion’s share of the workload, making him worthy of season starting status and a strong cheap DFS option.
J.D. McKissic RB, Washington, vs. Buccaneers (FD $5,400/DK $5,200)
Starter Antonio Gibson’s shin problem hasn’t disappeared. WFT likely will have to play keep-up with the Bucs — which means more passing, which is in McKissic’s wheelhouse.
SMALL WEAKS
Aaron Rodgers QB, Packers, vs. Seahawks (FD $7,800/DK $7,100)
Even if he plays, he will be coming in cold after nearly two weeks away from the team on COVID-IL. Dak Prescott last week showed what a rusty QB can look like. Green light every week thereafter, though.
D.J. Moore WR, Panthers, at Cardinals (FD $6,800/DK $6,300)
It’s been bad enough with Sam Darnold recently (10.1 PPR average over past five games). P.J. Walker? He has completed 3 of 15 passes this season. He would need to complete his next 19 passes to get to the league-average completion rate.
Courtland Sutton WR, Broncos, vs. Eagles (FD $6,600/DK $5,600)
Troubling drop in targets since Jerry Jeudy’s return, with just two last week. Eagles have surrendered just two WR touchdowns in the past five games.
Dallas Goedert TE, Eagles, at Broncos (FD $5,900/DK $4,700)
Has more than three catches just once in his past four games. Denver has yet to allow a tight end receiving TD.
Fantasy Insanity Daily Duel
Site: DraftKings
Slate: Sun. main (11 games)
Type: $12 tourney
Top prize: $10K
Pot: $100K
Drew’s Crew
QB – Tom Brady (TB, at Was) $7,600
RB – Najee Harris (Pit, vs. Det) $7,900
RB D’Ernest Johnson (Cle, at NE) $4,700
WR – A.J. Brown (Ten, vs. NO) $7,800
WR – Mike Evans (TB, at Was) $6,900
WR – James Washington (Pit, vs. Det) $3,500
TE – O.J. Howard (TB, at Was) $2,700
Flex – J.D. McKissic (Was, vs. TB) $5,200
DST – Cardinals (Ari, vs. Car) $3,700
Wilk’s Warriors
QB – Carson Wentz (Ind, vs. Jac) $5,900
RB – Dalvin Cook (Min, at LAC) $8,000
RB – Ezekiel Elliott (Dal, vs. Atl) $7,000
WR – Mike Evans (TB, at Was) $6,900
WR – Michael Pittman Jr. (Ind, vs. Jac) $6,300
WR – Russell Gage (Atl, at Dal) $5,000
TE – Dan Arnold (Jac, at Ind) $3,500
Flex – D’Ernest Johnson (Cle, at NE) $4,700
DST – Titans (Ten, vs. NO) $2,600
Season risked: $70
Season winnings: Jarad $20, Drew $15
