It took eight weeks for our first upset with a favorite of more than seven points, but there have been four of them in the past two weeks. Not only have underdogs been barking, but also they’ve had some bite. The survivor fields have thinned, and those still in the running have to be ecstatic as we head into Week 10.
My entry here has survived the bloodbath of the last two weeks. The picks have been the Rams, Packers, Broncos, Bengals, Ravens, Cowboys, Patriots, Bills and Colts.
The teams considered, but not selected, for Week 10 were: the Baltimore Ravens over the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night, Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars, Buffalo Bills over New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers over Detroit Lions, and Arizona Cardinals over Carolina Panthers.
The Colts (-10.5) were last week’s pick, so they are unavailable to me, but they look to be a great option for those who still have Indianapolis on the board. Jacksonville pulled off the 9-6 shocker against the Bills last week, but it was another ugly offensive performance from the Jaguars, and Trevor Lawrence is now dealing with a sprained ankle.
Remember that depending on your specific format, you’ll have to take at least 18 of the 32 NFL teams. You could take the Colts on the road against the Texans on Dec. 5 or the Jaguars on Jan. 9, but this likely is their biggest remaining favorite spot.
The Bills (-13) are on here by default because they’re the biggest favorite on the board, but something is clearly wrong with this team that has looked bad two games in a row. I give the Bills a pass in Week 8 for their struggle versus the Dolphins. Buffalo went into that game off a bye and teams are 3-9 ATS post-bye this season. But after the Bills’ 9-6 loss at Jacksonville last week, this is now a huge concern.
The Steelers (-8.5) don’t win by margin and play a lot of low-scoring games with their paltry offense. A lot of things can happen in low-scoring games. You can fall on the wrong side of turnovers. Missed field goals could play a role. Any number of things can derail a team that doesn’t win comfortably.
The Cardinals (-10) face the Seahawks next week, and this is one of those sandwich games that could potentially trip up Arizona, though it really shouldn’t be that big a factor. Arizona is just better in every way.
This week’s survivor pick is Tampa Bay over Washington. The Buccaneers are coming off their bye, which hasn’t been good for teams to this point, but a team like Tampa Bay, with some injuries and a 44-year-old quarterback, should be good to go after the break. The Bucs won eight straight games after last year’s bye, including Super Bowl LV.
Washington is also coming off its bye here. The Football Team doesn’t seem capable of keeping up with the Buccaneers. Washington’s defense has forced just nine takeaways and has allowed 5.9 yards per play, compared to 5.4 for the Buccaneers. The Bucs are third in yards per play on offense, and Washington is 17th.
Tampa Bay has been successful on third downs 49 percent of the time, which ranks second to Kansas City. Washington is 27th at 34.7 percent, and the defense is dead last, allowing opponents to convert 56.5 percent of their third-down attempts. The Bucs are a top-10 red-zone team. Washington ranks 31st. Everything from a statistical standpoint suggests Tampa Bay (-9.5) should win with relative ease.
This game seems to have serious blowout potential, while the others could end up much closer than the spread would suggest.