It doesn’t mater how cool your car is, how well you take care of it, how much you paid for it or how much you like it, it could still break down.
The battery could die, a tire could blow out, it could get sideswiped while parked on the curb.
Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has experienced the equivalent of a fender bender. He injured his ankle in a Thursday loss to the Packers in Week 8. It didn’t seem too bad, and he has had extra time to recover, so there was no real worry heading into Week 9.
Then he didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday, after fantasy waiver claims had processed. Now, it appears possible he will miss Sunday’s game at San Francisco.
Murray started the season as the most productive fantasy QB in the league, so that would be a big loss. But even if he plays, why should you expect the kind of production you have come to expect from Murray?
The first two weeks of the season, he led all QBs with better than 33 fantasy points in both games. He now ranks sixth among QBs in weekly average fantasy points.
In the six games since, he has averaged 18.5 per game. To put that in perspective, it is slightly fewer fantasy points than David Carr has averaged all season.
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Murray scored a rushing touchdown in each of the first three games. He has zero since. He averaged 27.25 yards rushing over his first four games. In four games since, that has dropped to 9.7. Those paltry totals aren’t likely to change while he is nursing an ankle injury.
Plus, he is playing against the 49ers. He already faced them earlier this year, and had his second-worst fantasy performance — 239 passing yards, one TD, 1 yard rushing for 13.66 fantasy points. The only game worse than that was last week — when he posted just 9.06 on 274 passing yards, zero TDs, two interceptions and 21 rushing yards.
His QBR (ESPN’s QB rating system, in which 50 is average) was below 50 in three of the past four games, compared to above 76 in three of his first four, with none lower than 56.2.
We’ve seen Murray have prolonged subpar stretches before, just last season in fact. He averaged 30.14 per week in fantasy over his first nine games, but just 17.06 in the remaining seven.
If he doesn’t play, the ripple effect goes beyond just the QB spot in fantasy. DeAndre Hopkins already is sketchy with his ailment, add in Colt McCoy as his starting QB, and it makes Hopkins benchable. Christian Kirk and A.J. Green are fringe Flex options who can be taken out of consideration with McCoy at QB.
But it could help, in particular, Chase Edmonds, if Murray sits. McCoy could be more likely to check down. James Conner might get a few more carries, but he really needs a TD to be useful in fantasy, and that probability would drop with McCoy under center.
Murray could break out of this slump, but it is unlikely it will happen this week. So don’t wait for him to be ruled out. Make arrangements now to find a fill-in for this week.
Big Weeks
Jeremy McNichols RB, Titans, at Rams (FanDuel $6,000/DraftKings $5,700)
Was the most popular waiver add this week. So if you got him, might as well start him this week, because we anticipate Adrian Peterson in the weeks ahead once he gets acclimated.
Hunter Renfrow WR, Raiders, at Giants (FD $5,600/DK $4,800)
The Henry Ruggs III tragedy is going to open up some targets for others. Though Bryan Edwards will get a fair share, the dependable Renfrow is the better bet to see consistent elevated production.
Emmanuel Sanders WR, Bills, at Jaguars (FD $6,500/DK $5,600)
No deep, data-driven analysis here, just basic NFL ebbs and flows. Was shut out last week. Don’t expect it to happen again, especially against a bad Jags pass defense.
Jaylen Waddle WR, Dolphins, vs. Texans (FD $6,100/DK $5,600)
DeVante Parker got the production last week, but Waddle had slightly more targets. Waddle’s volume is attractive, despite his inefficiency. Now, Parker is on IR.
Small Weaks
Damien Harris RB, Patriots, at Panthers (FD $6,600/DK $6,000)
We’re not big believers in the Panthers’ defense, despite the robust numbers. But we do think they can stuff a Pats running game led by run-of-the-mill RBs, which includes Harris.
Josh Jacobs RB, Raiders, at Giants (FD $7,200/DK $6,200)
It’s a nice matchup, but the rise of thorn-in-our-side Kenyan Drake limits Jacobs’ ceiling. Might be tough to sit in a week healthy with byes, but don’t expect him to dominate the workload.
D.J. Moore WR, Panthers, vs. Patriots (FD $7,100/DK $6,400)
The iffy status of RB Christian McCaffrey means Bill Belichick likely has been game-planning to stop the one other productive member of the Panthers’ offense. If QB Sam Darnold can’t go, it becomes even worse.
George Kittle TE, 49ers, vs. Cardinals (FD $6,000/DK $5,200)
Has been out since Week 4 with a calf problem. His return is possible this week. But if you’ve made it this far without him, go one more week just to let him shed the rust.
Fantasy Insanity Daily Duel
Site: FanDuel
Slate: Sun. main (11 games)
Type: $5 tourney
Top prize: $10K
Pot: $100K
Drew’s Crew
QB: Lamar Jackson, (Bal, vs. Min) $8,300
RB: Dalvin Cook, (Min, at Bal) $8,800
RB: Austin Ekeler, (LAC, at Phi) $9,000
WR: Marquise Brown, (Bal, vs. Min) $7,700
WR: Hunter Renfrow, (LV, at NYG) $5,600
WR: Kadarius Toney, (NYG, vs. LV) $5,700
TE: Tyler Conklin, (Min, at Bal) $5,200
Flex: Dallas Goedert, (Phi, vs. LAC) $6,200
DEF: Chiefs, (KC, vs. GB) $3,300
Wilk’s Warriors
QB: Jordan Love, (GB, at KC) $6,000
RB: Alvin Kamara, (NO, vs. Atl) $9,400
RB: Derrick Gore, (KC, vs. GB) $5,400
WR: Tyreek Hill, (KC, vs. GB) $8,500
WR: Ja’Marr Chase, (Cin, vs. Cle) $7,900
WR: Jaylen Waddle, (Mia, vs. Hou) MIA $6,100
TE: Dallas Goedert, (Phi, vs. LAC) $6,200
Flex: Devontae Booker, (NYG, vs. LV) $6,300
DEF: Cowboys, (Dal, vs. Den) $3,900
Season risked: $65
Season winnings: Jarad $20, Drew $5
