VSiN’s college football expert examines some betting angles for a handful of the top games on Saturday’s slate.
Michigan State (-3, 54) at Purdue
It’s shocking how real the hangover potential feels in this game. All of the ingredients are nicely in place. Michigan State is coming off a spectacular win over its rival. Sparty closed as a four-point underdog, fell behind two scores and still managed to pull off a win over Jim Harbaugh.
Purdue closed as 7.5-point underdog to Nebraska, and the Boilermakers won 28-23. Purdue, of course, already beat Iowa this year, 24-7, in Iowa City, when the Hawkeyes were ranked No. 2. In fact, they have assumed this role quite nicely in recent memory. While we should absolutely respect the Spartans after last week, I can’t say an upset would be a surprise in the least. This is a weird team and weird place to play at just the right time.
Texas A&M (-4, 49.5) vs. Auburn
About six weeks ago, I’m not sure we had this game circled. But now? It’s immensely compelling, and Auburn and Texas A&M are two of the hottest teams in the sport. Auburn upended Ole Miss in Week 9, winning by 11 and covering the three-point spread. The Aggies were off on Saturday, although they have won three consecutive games (and covered the number in all three). This will be a fascinating test for Auburn QB Bo Nix, who has really improved over the course of the season. Texas A&M has the nation’s fourth-ranked scoring defense, which will likely make life more difficult on a quarterback who really thrives off script. Auburn is no slouch in the defensive department either, and I could see this game being competitive and lower scoring. I don’t particularly love betting Unders, but I might here.
Arkansas (-5.5, 55.5) vs. Mississippi State
Mike Leach has a fascinating football team, and we saw the potential against Kentucky on Saturday. His quarterback, Will Rogers, completed an absurd 36 of 39 passes, and the Bulldogs cruised as a short underdog. Heck, they even ran the ball pretty well, which they rarely do. They have now covered in three of the past four games, although this will certainly be a pretty intriguing test. Arkansas comes into this week off a bye, and the Hogs will likely be up for this. They’re 4-1 ATS in home games this year, and this point spread speaks to the kind of team Arkansas still is despite the losses. Although neither team is ranked, the winner likely will be after this.
North Carolina (-2.5, 75.5) vs. Wake Forest
At this point, it’s feeling routine to see teams ranked near or inside the top 10 getting points. We saw it with Iowa against Wisconsin last week, and the end result was a Badgers blowout. Now, unbeaten Wake Forest, which is ranked in the top 10 for the first time ever, is catching a few points at North Carolina in a game that could very well break the scoreboard. The Tar Heels have not covered the spread in four of the past five games, and they were unable to cover the +3.5-point number against Notre Dame last week. (Although they were close.) The Demon Deacons just manhandled Duke, and the offense has scored at least 35 points in every game this year. The issue? The schedule hasn’t been great. I love the season, although I’m just keeping it real. This could be a wild game, and I lean UNC.