Two recent polls show Republican Glenn Youngkin pulling ahead of Democrat Terry McAuliffe in a closely watched gubernatorial race in Virginia that could be a bellwether for the 2022 midterm congressional races.
Youngkin leads McAuliffe by 47 percent to 45 percent in a Fox 5/Insider Advantage poll released on the eve of Tuesday’s election – an edge that falls within the survey’s 4.4 percentage points margin of error.
A Fox News survey from last Thursday found Youngkin ahead by eight percentage points – 53 percent to 45 percent – over McAuliffe, who served as governor between 2014 and 2018, in a state President Biden won by 10 percentage points last year.
Earlier polls gave McAuliffe a slight advantage in the now-blue state of Virginia, but they have fallen off just as Biden’s favorability ratings have plunged since August to under 50 percent.
The two Fox News surveys show that Youngkin, 54, is within striking distance of McAuliffe, a victory that would stun Democrats in a race widely seen as a bellwether of the GOP’s chances of winning back the House and Senate in the 2022 midterms.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for Republicans, who haven’t won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009 and lost majorities in the state legislature two years ago.
“This is the year a Republican’s got to win that race,” Patrick McSweeney, a former chair of the Republican Party of Virginia, told the Associated Press.
Education is one of the top issues in the Virginia election among voters, and Youngkin has played it to his advantage by speaking up for parents amid vaccine and mask mandates, and opposing the teaching of the controversial critical race theory in state schools.
McAuliffe, 64, has followed the Biden playbook and campaigned heavily in the state’s suburbs, especially in Northern Virginia, repeatedly setting himself at odds with concern about having a say in their children’s curricula.
He’s also had Democratic heavy-hitters like former President Barack Obama, Vice President Kamala Harris and Biden stump for him, which appears to have made matters worse, accoording to the polling.
Biden defeated former President Donald Trump in Virginia by 10 percentage points.
But since taking office, Biden’s fortunes have been trending downward.
His polling numbers are underwater, his legislative agenda consisting of the infrastructure and social spending plans are stalled in Congress and his administration’s military pullout of Afghanistan in August was marred by chaos that led to the death of 13 US service members.
The president’s handling of the economy has also taken a hit because of the global supply chain problems that are causing the prices of goods to skyrocket.
“Virginia is a very blue state — I do not consider Virginia a purple state — so the fact that we’re this competitive speaks volumes about the state of our country and the popularity of Biden,” Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel told the Associated Press.
Jamie Harrison, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, acknowledged that a Youngkin win would be a “doomsday” scenario, but was optimistic that Democratic voters would turn out for McAuliffe in force.
“I’m not running around with my hair on fire, not at this point,” he told the wire service.
In New Jersey, a state Biden won by 16 percentage points last November, Gov. Phil Murphy looks to be ahead of his Republican challenger, but recent polls show Jack Ciattarelli has been able to cut into his lead before election day Tuesday.
A Monmouth University poll released last Wednesday showed Ciattarelli 11 percentage points behind Murphy — 51 percent to 40 percent — but the Republican was down 17 percentage points in the same poll in August.
Two other surveys that came out last Thursday and Friday show Ciattarelli, a former state legislator and businessman, just nine percentage points behind Murphy.
The governor is up 50 percent to 41 percent in a Stockton University poll and ahead 53 percent to 44 percent in a Fairleigh Dickinson University survey.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said he detects a shift over the past five years when Democratic candidates have won by about 14 points in New Jersey.
“What we’re seeing with where the race is now is that the Democrat is slightly underperforming in part, in large part I think, because of what we’re seeing nationally,” Murray told the Washington Examiner.
He also compared the New Jersey race to the governor’s contest in Virginia, where Democrat Terry McAuliffe, running against challenger Glenn Youngkin, is “underperforming what the fundamentals suggest would happen there.”
“It’s happening in both states, so that suggests it’s something national driving that,” Murray told the newspaper, suggesting political gridlock in Washington may be the driving factor.
“That has lowered Democratic enthusiasm nationwide, as there’s governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey. That’s where we’re seeing it play out,” Murray said.
In Virginia, McAuliffe, who served as governor between 2014 and 2018, and Youngkin are neck-and-neck, but a recent poll shows the Republican gaining ground.
A Fox News survey from last Thursday shows Youngkin ahead by eight percentage points (53 percent to 45 percent) and a Fox 5 DC/Insider Advantage poll released Monday found Youngkin leading by two percentage points (47 percent to 45 percent).
Earlier polls gave McAuliffe a slight advantage in the now-blue state of Virginia.
President Biden defeated former President Donald Trump in Virginia by 10 percentage points and by 16 percentage points in New Jersey last November, propelled in large part by suburban voters.
But since taking office, Biden’s fortunes have been on a downward trend.
His polling numbers are underwater, his legislative agenda consisting of the infrastructure and social spending plans are stalled in Congress and his administration’s military pullout of Afghanistan in August was marred by chaos that led to the deaths of 13 US service members.
“Virginia is a very blue state — I do not consider Virginia a purple state — so the fact that we’re this competitive speaks volumes about the state of our country and the popularity of Biden,” Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel told the Associated Press.
Jamie Harrison, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, acknowledged that a Youngkin win would be a “doomsday” scenario, but was optimistic that Democratic voters would turn out for McAuliffe in force.
“I’m not running around with my hair on fire, not at this point,” he told the wire service.
While the issues in New Jersey have centered around taxes, the economy and the coronavirus pandemic, in Virginia education has become the major focus — namely the controversy surrounding the teaching of critical race theory.
McAuliffe has also been trying to connect his Republican opponent to Trump, even running ads quoting Youngkin talking about the 45th president.
Biden, stumping for McAuliffe last week in Virginia, mentioned Trump’s name 24 times in a 17-minute speech.
But recently McAuliffe has been saying the election is not about Trump, leading CNN’s Dana Bash to joke about the Democrat’s constant comments about the former president.
“You mentioned Donald Trump. I’m glad I have two cups here so I can keep drinking when you mention Donald Trump’s name,” Bash said.
Christian Martinez, the rapid response director for Youngkin, used the clip to reiterate the campaign’s point that McAuliffe “only ever talks about one thing … Donald Trump.”
