When the Chicago Blackhawks host the Ottawa Senators on Monday, they’ll be doing so on a single day’s rest, as it will be their third game in four days. The Senators, meanwhile, had the weekend off to rest after picking up a big win in Dallas on Friday. This is an important game for the Blackhawks, who have yet to win a game (0-7-2), but there are a lot of questions about what their lineup will look like. There might be a good moneyline bet to be made here, but the situation is very fluid with Patrick Kane and four others in COVID protocol, so I’d suggest looking at the total in the meantime.
Matt Murray was back at practice on Sunday after missing two games, and it looks like there’s a good chance he’ll be in goal on Monday. If that’s the case, the Senators won’t make it onto my card as a moneyline play. Backup goaltenders Anton Forsberg and Filip Gustavsson are much better options and they’ve rewarded my confidence in them by producing a profit for me. Murray, however, is on my list of goaltenders I avoid. There’s always a point at which I would bet on any team, but +110 is nowhere close to meeting that threshold. As far as the Blackhawks’ goaltending situation goes, Kevin Lankinen and Marc-Andre Fleury have both been bad, combining to allow four goals per game, but it’s not all their fault.
According to the Evolving Hockey website, Chicago grades out as the worst team by expected goals (for and against) at five-on-five. Expected goal models weigh each unblocked shot attempt based on a number of variables to determine the likelihood of a shot finding the back of the net. Shot location is a big one, but shot type and angle are also taken into account. For example, a shot from the point might have a 3 percent chance of becoming a goal while a wrist shot from the slot could have a 30 percent chance of finding the back of the net.
The Blackhawks don’t control play and don’t do much with the puck when they do have possession. They’re giving up quality scoring chances on the regular while not generating many themselves. Fortunately, for the Blackhawks, Murray allowed 3.4 goals per 60 minutes last season and, on average, we should expect them to put more than a couple of pucks behind him. But don’t look past the Senators because they won’t roll over for any team, much less a bad team like the Blackhawks. Ottawa was the only team not to be shut out in 2020-21, and that’s an attribute that every bettor should be able to appreciate.
THE PLAY: Blackhawks-Senators Over 6 goals.