The problem with the Mets’ acquisitions of Edwin Diaz, Robinson Cano and Francisco Lindor — and his ultimate long-term signing — begins with delusion.
The Mets were 77-85 in 2018, yet convinced themselves that they were a top closer away from contention, so they gave up an elite chip in Jarred Kelenic while also taking on most of Cano’s contract, age and baggage to acquire Diaz.
The Mets were 26-34 last year and missed the eight-team NL playoffs. Yet because they had an offense that hit, but didn’t score, and a defense that allowed too many outs to become hits, they not only gave up assets for Lindor, but also signed him to a 10-year, $341 million contract before ever seeing him handle a grounder or an issue in New York.
Ownership desire always carries the day. The Wilpons were on the way out and wanted to take one last shot at winning, so in 2018, they bypassed the long-term visions of Chaim Bloom to run baseball operations in exchange for Brodie Van Wagenen’s optimism that the Mets were a winning team at their core, especially if augmented quickly and well.
On his way in the door, Steve Cohen was going to make at least one “I am not Fred and Jeff” tentpole move to show there was a new (richer) sheriff in town. He did this with Lindor and then got lucky that Trevor Bauer didn’t take his money.
Cohen’s first Mets team entered the final weekend 75-83. It was 20-36 since trading for Javier Baez, or one game better in that time than the Cubs, who traded Baez — and nearly every other worthy veteran on the team. I am sure the Mets think they are better than their record. They always do. They should stop doing that as they begin yet another pivotal offseason in their history.
I do not recommend the Mets rebuild. No way. Not with Cohen’s largesse. Not with Jacob deGrom on the roster. I only recommend that they honestly assess. That evaluation would reveal that the 2021 season has left them with few sure things heading into the offseason, and that includes the cloud over deGrom and his health. The player they feel the best about who is under control is who? Probably Pete Alonso. And with the expected rule changes coming in a new collective bargaining agreement, Alonso’s value would dip as he becomes more of a DH.
I actually think Lindor is going to be fine also, following the Carlos Beltran path: troubled first year, then really good after that. Lindor might not be a great player, but he is very good, and as long as he can tolerate the fans’ disappointment that he is not great, he should return to being a strong all-around player.
So the Mets are not a win-the-backpage signature acquisition from excellence. It is hard to envision, for example, any additions this offseason that would sustain top-level contention if deGrom is not healthy and elite for the full season next year. Thus, they should be protecting the best of their farm system. And they should be avoiding long, substantial contracts. That means almost certainly waving goodbye to Baez, who probably is looking at no less than five years at $125 million, and Marcus Stroman, who is probably looking at no less than four years at $72 million (and a sixth year for Baez or a fifth year for Stroman at more dollars are in play).
The Mets are looking at another 77-85-ish record, the type Van Wagenen inherited. They need to avoid the self-con. They should be saving their big, long-term dollars and best prospects for a more certain time of contention.
And yet I think 2022 is a year in which Cohen should have the majors’ largest payroll, going north of $250 million (remember Cano’s money comes back onto the books next year). But the Mets should do that by dominating the one- and two-year space in the market, overpaying to get what they want.
The goal would be, if the moons align — think deGrom staying healthy for 30 starts and 2021 underperformers such as Lindor, Michael Conforto (more on him in a bit) and Jeff McNeil making rebounds on offense — then the Mets will have added talent around that to try to go for it. If not, they will have added assets not tied to long-term deals to potentially trade in July to deepen a farm system that needs such a thickening and/or to let the contracts run out after 2022 or 2023, at the latest.
The Brewers have had terrific success with this philosophy in recent years, with short deals on players such as Avisail Garcia, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Moustakas and Kolten Wong (and some not so good like Jackie Bradley Jr.). The architect of that is their head of baseball operations, David Stearns. Which brings us to three key hurdles to the Mets exacting any type of plan this offseason:
- They have to hire a president of baseball operations, who will have to hire a staff (notably a general manager) and potentially (probably?) a manager and coaching staff. And that is unlikely to occur quickly. If they have eyes on someone like Stearns, or perhaps the Dodgers’ Josh Byrnes, they probably will have to wait until those teams are done with the playoffs, especially for Stearns. They may not even get access to someone such as Stearns, who is under contract. Or maybe they will have to trade an asset (McNeil?) and take on a bad contract (Bradley’s 2022?) to have access to Stearns.
But Cohen has to decide how much he wants to let the current baseball ops do before a longer-term chieftain arrives.
- What are the rules? That revolves around when a new CBA is signed. The current one will expire on Dec. 1. Without a new deal, MLB could impose a lockout, ending all free agency and trades until there is an agreement. Without one, no team could know for sure whether there will be a DH in the NL or new luxury-tax rules or expanded playoffs — all of which (and more) would impact offseason decision making.
The uncertainty, though, is expected to make some portion of teams and players anxious to conduct business quickly or in a period in which the Mets do not have a president of baseball operations or that person has just been hired.
- Whenever offseason business is done, this is a superb free-agent class and there are a lot of teams expected to spend. So while Cohen has the most money, many others will have plenty and perhaps a pretty picture in, for example, surer contention to sell.
The Mets’ first player moves will involve whether to qualify Michael Conforto, which seems a no-brainer, and Noah Syndergaard. No one knows better about Syndergaard’s health than the Mets. Do they believe they can get 25 starts and 150 quality innings out of him? If so — then as with Stroman after he did not pitch in 2020 — they should probably give him the qualifying offer, which may actually be going down a drop from the $18.9 million of last offseason. It is possible Conforto or Syndergaard could turn down the qualifying offer, which in compensation would give the Mets more 2022 draft capital.
Or would the Mets be better off imagining that $20 million for Syndergaard being split between two starters to try to create rotation protection? Could some tandem of Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Jon Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez and Alex Wood come on one- or two-year deals and cost between $20 million-$25 million combined annually?
If so, should the Mets add two from that category and then, rather than Syndergaard, gamble on a one- or two-year deal for Carlos Rodon or for Justin Verlander, who did not pitch in 2021 after Tommy John surgery? Both are huge health risks. But if the White Sox (Rodon) and Astros (Verlander) put the qualifying offer on them, would that be a signal to the industry that they believe in the health of the pitchers?
DeGrom, Verlander, Rodriguez, Wood, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker with Tylor Megill and David Peterson stashed at Triple-A (by the way, if you are curious, I think there is no way Max Scherzer would play for the Mets). There is a lot of volatility in that kind of rotation (which is why I went with six veteran starters), but upside and no long-term commitment. It is a group that could buy the Mets time to get their infrastructure, notably their farm system, better while not surrendering a shot at contention with the major league team.
The rotation is the greatest area of concern for next year, the one that will necessitate the most energy and money. But it is not the only concern — again the Mets are not one or two pieces from excellence. Do the Mets believe in this Aaron Loup season? If so, can they do a quick re-signing at, say, two years, $16 million?
But when it comes to the bullpen and the positional group, I think patience would be the best option. If there is a lockout, then the offseason signing period will be condensed and Cohen sitting with a willingness to overpay for a year or two could provide a real late-offseason edge for the likes of Mark Canha or Andrew McCutchen for the outfield, Mychael Givens or Daniel Hudson for the pen.
The Mets will have plenty of opportunities to augment this group. But the first key is honesty about this group. They are building around a non-playoff core with few sure things. It is not the time to go big-game hunting.
