Running back is the most volatile position in fantasy football. RBs are more likely to get injured and they have the shortest career window for prime production. This makes rookie RBs routinely more immediately valuable in fantasy than other positions. This year appears to be no different.
Najee Harris is set to take over bellcow duties in Pittsburgh. He is the clear top fantasy rookie RB, based on volume alone. We also expect him to catch passes. He is the only rookie who does not have some degree of competition for a healthy dose of carries. The only reason he is going in the second round instead of the first is the Steelers’ porous run game last season, and the worry about Ben Roethlisberger’s durability – because if he goes down, as we’ve seen, the Pittsburgh offense sinks with him.
The Jaguars have a Clemson flavor to them – having drafted quarterback Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Eitenne. Incumbent starter James Robinson was simply too good in his rookie season last year to be completely forgotten. He will still get some carries, which will cut into Eitenne’s fantasy value. And that was before Eitenne suffered a foot sprain Monday – he will miss an undetermined amount of time. This should push Eitenne down draft boards – from the turn in rounds 4-5 to likely the round 7-8 range.
Denver drafted Javonte Williams in the second round. If Williams had the kind of clear path to bulk carries that Harris enjoys, we would have Williams ranked much higher. But Melvin Gordon is still on the roster, and we expect the veteran to absorb a significant amount of the workload and probably the goal-line carries.
49ers rookie Trey Sermon also has a veteran in his backfield, Raheem Mostert. Though we like Mostert’s production more than Gordon (making Mostert a harder hurdle for Sermon to clear than Williams with Gordon), but Mostert has a hefty log of injuries on his ledger and has never carried the load as a primary back for an entire season. This is why we think Sermon has a better chance of becoming the lead horse in San Fran than Williams does in Denver, at a lower draft cost.
Michael Carter landed in New York with the Jets. The team signed Tevin Coleman, but his best days appear behind him. With a new quarterback and new coach and new offense, we like Carter’s chances to be the go-to back better than Williams’ as well.
Carolina lost their backup to Christian McCaffrey when Mike Davis signed with the Falcons. They drafted a new handcuff in Chuba Hubbard. He is worth a late pick as a handcuff if you have McCaffrey, but otherwise he will rot on your bench awaiting a CMC injury.
With Doug Pederson no longer at the helm in Philadelphia, it is unclear if the fantasy backfield hell will continue in his absence. Miles Sanders is the clear frontrunner to be a bona fide lead guy. But the Eagles did add Kenneth Gainwell. Much like Hubbard, we view him primarily as a handcuff option, but he does have slightly more upside just because his role/expected workload is much less reliant on an injury.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the latest name to add to the bag of Patriots backs who are certain to annoy fantasy managers. A dominant fantasy option has rarely emerged from New England since the days of Corey Dillon. We expect the rookie’s main impact to be undermining Damien Harris, more than Stevenson making a fantasy impact himself.