Fernando Tatis Jr. came off the injured list Sunday, immediately hit two home runs and everybody lost their minds. By Sunday night, DraftKings, BetMGM and FanDuel had moved Tatis to -300 to win the NL MVP. I thought Tatis -185 after his first home run was fair, and I understand the overreaction, but I think the line is too high.
That’s not to say I don’t think Tatis is an elite player. He’ll likely win an MVP at some point. I just don’t think it will be this year on a third-place team when he has missed 20-plus games and has 20-plus errors at shortstop. Entering Wednesday, the Padres were just 1 ¹/₂ games ahead of the Reds for the second wild card. The Padres’ odds to make the playoffs are Yes -132/No +106 at FanDuel this week. I just don’t see how Tatis should be -300. If I were booking this market, I’d lower the number and write more bets on Tatis.
I’ve dropped Manny Machado, Nick Castellanos and Mookie Betts from consideration. Machado is an MVP-level talent, but he won’t get a serious look this year with Tatis back. Same things I always say about the Padres apply, such as they are in third place and Machado isn’t the best player on his own team. Castellanos is another MVP-caliber player, but Joey Votto will get MVP votes if any Reds player is considered. Betts is back on the injured list with a hip injury. A healthy Betts will be high on the 2022 MVP list, but we can toss him for now. Trea Turner is also in this weird limbo. He’s still a contender, but I find it hard to see him winning over Dodgers teammate Max Muncy.
The Braves have jumped up to first place in the NL East. A lot of that has to do with the incompetence of the Mets and Phillies, but it has more to do with the continued elite level of play the Braves are getting from Freddie Freeman, Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson in the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr.
Riley is a long shot listed at 80/1 at BetMGM and not listed at FanDuel or DraftKings. His numbers say we should at least consider him, but for me he joins guys such as Bryan Reynolds and Willy Adames in my consider-in-2022 pile.
Freeman is the reigning NL MVP and should deserve some consideration. But is he better than Votto? Or Muncy?
I think Votto probably has the most value on the board if you can bet the 50/1 number at DraftKings. Even 40/1 at BetMGM is all right, and 35/1 at FanDuel is still decent. MVPs are won with performances at the end of the season, not numbers from the beginning. That’s one reason I use the previous 30 days to provide context for how players are performing. Votto has been the best hitter in baseball the past 30 days. With the Reds hot on the Padres’ heels, I’d much rather take him at 50/1 this week than lay -300 with Tatis.
Will Bryce Harper win the MVP if the Phillies don’t make the playoffs? I don’t think so, and I think I’d put Votto ahead of him based on their past-30-days numbers.
In summary, I’d look at the best available numbers on Votto. I think Muncy has a real chance, too, and +950 at FanDuel is a good number if you haven’t already bet him. If the Dodgers come back and win the NL West, Muncy will have a real shot at passing Tatis, and I like Muncy’s +950 better than betting the Dodgers to win the NL West at even money.