Football returned on Thursday, not just in the NFL Hall of Fame Game exhibition between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys, but also in Winnipeg in the Canadian Football League opener between the Blue Bombers and Hamilton Tiger-Cats. The results actually count up north, with the BC Lions visiting the Saskatchewan Roughriders Friday and two games on Saturday (Toronto Argonauts at Calgary Stampeders and Ottawa Redblacks at Edmonton Elks). Of course, you can bet on all of it.
It has been 20 months since the CFL played, and when we left off, Winnipeg upset Hamilton to win the 2019 Grey Cup, 33-12. The Blue Bombers weren’t the league’s best team that season, going 11-7 and settling in as the third seed in the West. But they won three road postseason games, all as underdogs, en route to the title. It wasn’t a complete shock, however, as over the last four seasons, only Calgary has won more games than Winnipeg.
I will be posting weekly game ratings for every contest of the 2021 CFL season on VSiN.com and in Point Spread Weekly, just as I have for college and pro football since 2017. I will also try to keep readers up to speed on any usual betting trends that form.
The first thing you should watch out for is that the nine-team CFL has four new coaches and three new starting quarterbacks. Here are some basic CFL betting concepts to consider for 2021:
Aim low with scoring expectations
The CFL is considered a wide-open, high-scoring league by those unfamiliar with it. But while NFL scoring has exploded in the past several years, CFL scoring has done just the opposite. In fact, since the start of the 2014 season, Unders boast a record of 276-202, good for 57.7 percent. If you drill even deeper with games showing totals of 55 or higher, the Under is 40-23, or 63.5 percent.
Road-field advantage?
In looking at the home-road results of the last seven CFL seasons, in only one year have home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. There has been safety in betting road teams, as they are 312-261 ATS (54.5 percent) since the start of the 2013 campaign. Home teams have gone 325-257 outright in that span, but the point spread has proven to be more than the great equalizer, providing a nice betting cushion for road teams.
Bark, big doggie
Similarly to road teams holding an advantage, big underdogs have enjoyed the same. Going back to the 2010 season, CFL underdogs of 4.5 points or more boast a record of 237-189 ATS, good for 55.6 percent, a nice return on investment for a simple wagering system.
Go with the flow, not against it
While this angle isn’t nearly as lucrative as the others, results since 2013 have shown that backing teams coming off outright wins has been more effective than putting your money behind teams that lost their last contest. The difference has been 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent in terms of ATS success.
Combo system
If you’re looking for a narrower betting angle utilizing a combination of these concepts, consider consistently backing road underdogs of 4.5 points or higher when coming off a victory. Since 2013, these teams have gone 57-40 ATS, for 58.7 percent. Again, it’s a simple concept that can bring you profits.