It’s early, but that doesn’t mean we can’t already make a few NFL picks. Here’s a few Over-Unders worth placing a wager on:
Pittsburgh Steelers, Under 9 wins
The team that was undefeated the longest last season just has to be above .500 for me not to lose this bet? Must be a steal.
No, I like the Under, and I think the train has left the station for the Steelers. Their once-great offensive line is under major reconstruction, and while their future Hall of Fame quarterback is the only man left standing from that great QB class of 2004, he’s not far from joining Eli Manning and Philip Rivers in retirement. Yes, the Steelers were undefeated until December. But a closer look at whom they beat and how they finished the season tells a different story.
Their lone victory in December came against the Colts after trailing 24-7 in the second half. They were throttled by the Bengals and Washington, and they rested starters the final week, letting in a Browns team that blew the Steelers’ doors off in the wild-card round the next week.
Let’s also look at the quarterbacks the Steelers faced to compile that gaudy undefeated record. Daniel Jones, Carson Wentz, Jeff Driskel, Garrett Gilbert, Jake Luton and Robert Griffin III were the opposing quarterbacks in half the Steelers’ wins last year. The Browns and Ravens are in the same division and both won playoff games, the Bengals should be more competitive with Joe Burrow at quarterback for a full year and I think the Steelers are positioned to take a huge step backward against a first-place schedule. Under 9 is the play.
Los Angeles Rams, Over 10 wins
I get a coach, a quarterback and a defense that are all well above average. We will hear plenty about Matthew Stafford never winning a playoff game, but the context of that stat tells a different story.
In 2014, Stafford’s Lions had the Cowboys beaten, but the Lions inexplicably punted on fourth-and-1 from midfield in the fourth quarter and were the victims of a pass-interference flag that was thrown, then picked up late in the game — a big reason they lost. In 2016, Stafford played the last month of the season with a broken hand as the Lions lost their last four games, then fell at Seattle in the wild-card round. In 2011, Stafford threw for nearly 400 yards and had four total touchdowns in a 45-28 playoff loss to the Saints.
Yes, I admit to being a bit of a Stafford apologist, but I believe a ton of evidence says he has been a very good player who has been uplifting an incompetent franchise.
This season the Rams get the friendly AFC South and games against the Giants as well as Stafford’s former squad. The Rams have gone all-in (again) and are a win-now team that will be bitterly disappointed if they don’t win 11-plus games. I don’t think they, or bettors, will experience that disappointment. I like the Over.
Kansas City Chiefs, Over 12.5 wins
Peyton Manning had (overly) well-documented struggles as a rookie. After that, however, his teams ripped off double-digit wins in 11 of the next 12 seasons until 2011, when he was injured and subsequently released.
Manning is perhaps the greatest regular-season football player we have ever seen … which leads me to the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes.
It’s simple, it’s maybe square, but betting against the Chiefs to win 13-plus games is basically betting on Mahomes to get hurt and miss a chunk of the season.
A healthy Mahomes, like a healthy Peyton Manning, gives any decent team a floor of 13-4 (this 17th game is totally botching my vernacular). Andy Reid and the Chiefs have quietly rebuilt the offensive line and will undoubtedly be motivated and focused coming off their Super Bowl shellacking. Joe Thuney, Kyle Long and Orlando Brown were added to beef up an offensive line that was overwhelmed by the Buccaneers’ pass rush in the Super Bowl. As long as Mahomes is healthy, it’s hard to see five teams capable of outscoring the potent Chiefs.
Having the best player at the most important position, a plethora of dynamic weapons and a great play-caller is a recipe for another monster regular season.