VSiN’s NFL experts drill into a couple of games in the Week 3 late Sunday afternoon window.
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Youmans: The Dallas defense is beat up, and Russell Wilson is playing a hot hand, so those are the main reasons this game has the highest total (57.5) of the week. Wilson has an insane completion percentage (82.5) to go with nine TD passes and one interception.
What might not be as obvious is the fact Seattle ranks last in total defense (485 yards per game) and pass defense (415.5 ypg) after getting shredded by the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Dak Prescott and the Cowboys certainly have enough scoring firepower to trade shots with Wilson in a shootout. The Seahawks are 3-7 against the spread in their past 10 as home favorites.
Youmans’ pick: Cowboys +4.5.
Dinsick: Outstanding matchup of offensive firepower is on tap in this contest with the league’s top performing quarterback, Wilson, hosting the Cowboys — who snapped out of their funk, exploding for 30 points in the second half of their comeback win against the Falcons.
The Seahawks were exposed defensively against the Patriots in Week 2, and without any ability to generate a pass rush, Seattle will have difficulty capitalizing on the one weakness of the Cowboys offense, their injured offensive line.
The Cowboys similarly are suffering from a cluster injury at cornerback. Seattle will feature a dynamic set of weapons in the passing game, which sets up a score-and-answer game state and high red-zone efficiency (Seattle is already the most efficient team in the red zone, converting a touchdown on every opportunity so far this season).
Dinsick’s pick: Over 57.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos
Dinsick: Tom Brady and company head to altitude this week to take on a Broncos team that will look for a relief effort from their backup quarterback Jeff Driskel.
The Buccaneers got back on track in Week 2 with a comfortable win against the Carolina Panthers, but Brady has been uncharacteristically sloppy so far this season, having already thrown three interceptions and falling below his expected completion percentage above expected (-0.3 percent) for the first time in many seasons.
Denver coach Vic Fangio is on record that the Broncos will adjust their offense this week to play into Driskel’s “strengths” — which suggests we will see a more conservative approach from Denver which is a significant problem against one of the leagues top defenses (Tampa Bay currently No. 4 in defense-adjusted value over average, -19.0 percent).
This information sets up a nice play on the Under considering the likelihood that Tampa will not be forced into a high-scoring affair as Denver intends to shorten the game and rely on its defense.
Dinsick’s pick: Under 42.5.