After the NHL’s revised playoff format of round robins for the top four seeds in each conference and qualifying series for seeds 5-12, the Stanley Cup tournament really gets started Tuesday and Wednesday with the traditional round of 16.
Underdogs went 23-19 straight-up in the games played so far in the neutral-ice “bubble” sites in Toronto and Edmonton and the lower-seeded teams won four of the eight qualifying series as the 12th-seeded Canadiens (+190) and Blackhawks (+150) upset the No. 5-seeded Penguins and Oilers, respectively, while the No. 11 Coyotes (+110) knocked off the No. 6 Predators and the No. 9 Blue Jackets (+150) beat the No. 8 Maple Leafs in the only series that went the full five games.
However, as much as I’d like to see this as a sign of more upsets moving forward, I believe we’ll see a return to form in the eight first-round series for a couple of reasons:
- For starters, I think playing all the games at one site will work to the superior teams’ advantage. In the seven-game series we’re used to seeing, the road team (almost always the underdog) tries to split the first two games and then gets to play the next two games at home with a better chance to steal the series.
- It’ll also help that the top four teams in each conference weren’t idle and were able to work off the rust in their round-robin games without the fear of being eliminated. The eight series favorites should come in rested and focused. That doesn’t mean I’m not still looking for upsets, but just that we need to be more selective.
In my Post piece Aug. 1, I touted the Blackhawks to upset the Oilers and that was a nice hit at +150 (Chicago won Game 1 at +135, Game 3 at +110 and Game 4 at +115). But I’m not picking the Blackhawks to upset the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed, the Vegas Golden Knights, as they were my top pick to win the Stanley Cup at 6/1 in that same article.
The Golden Knights are clearly the better team and are the biggest first-round series favorite at -340. I’m on the Vegas bandwagon because of the two-headed goaltending team of Robin Lehner (ironically acquired from the Blackhawks earlier in the season) and Marc-Andre Fleury. Lehner won his two round-robin games while Fleury won his one game but was bailed out by the offense in a 6-4 win over the defending-champion St. Louis Blues.
The Blackhawks are the youngest team in the playoffs, but are led by Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and goalie Corey Crawford from their Stanley-Cup winning teams. They can still win a game or two, so I’ll start with taking them at +175 in Tuesday night’s Game 1 (see it as a hedge against my Stanley Cup bet on the Golden Knights in case the Blackhawks make a series of this).
But I think the better bet in the Chicago-Vegas series is the 1st Period Over 1.5 goals (-150). The Blackhawks play a wide-open style where they attack the goal but don’t always get back on defense (and often play sloppy when they do), so this leads to opportunities on both ends. With the game total set at 6¹/₂ goals, I believe the 1st Period should be set at 2 goals, so we have a big edge here. The Blackhawks were 4-0 with this bet vs. the Oilers (and would have been 4-0 even if the total had been 2). Here’s hoping they score early and often.