It’s tough sharing New York City with the most iconic and winningest franchise in sports history. But somebody’s gotta do it.
After going 86-76 (.531) and barely missing out on a wild-card berth in 2019, the New York Mets enter 2020 as a trendy team on the rise in the eyes of the betting public.
However, New York did very little to improve its roster this offseason. The Mets signed veteran pitchers Dellin Betances, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha. But they’ve lost three high-level starters with Zack Wheeler going to the Phillies, Noah Syndergaard missing the season with Tommy John surgery and Marcus Stroman going down this week with a left calf tear.
New York’s regular-season win total is 32.5 games across the market. This translates to 87.75 wins based on a 162-game schedule. After winning 86 games last season, a virtual two-win increase seems easily achievable. FanGraphs, one of the most respected sites for advanced baseball analytics, projects the Mets to go 33-27, which represents a half-game edge to the Over.
However, a closer look at the juice on the Mets win total shows wiseguys to be leaning toward the Under. At DraftKings, the Over 32.5 is -109, Under -114. FanDuel is offering Over 32.5 at -106, Under -116. And PointsBet is hanging Over 32.5 at +100, Under -121. CircaSports, based in Las Vegas, is even more bullish on the Under, hanging a win total of 32 (Over +100, Under -120).
Casual bettors often overlook the juice, instead focusing on just the odds themselves. That is a big mistake. Reading juice prices and monitoring juice movement is key because it gives bettors important insight into where smart money is coming in and where house liability lies. In the case of the Mets, the under is being “juiced up” across the board, regardless of which book you look at. This signals market consensus. In other words, oddsmakers are forcing bettors to pay a more expensive price on the Under because that’s the side taking in all the respected action.
At BetMGM, New York is +325 to win the NL East, tied with the Phillies for the third-best odds. The Braves are the favorite at +180 followed by the Nationals at +240. The Mets are 12/1 to win the National League and 20/1 to win the World Series.
In terms of player props, ace Jacob deGrom is the favorite to win his third straight NL Cy Young at +280. It’s hard to bet against deGrom, but the +280 payout isn’t very appealing. Two props offering more value center around his win total and strikeouts.
DeGrom’s Over/Under wins is 6.5 (Over +105, Under -136) and strikeouts 92.5 (Over -125, Under -105). Based on the juice prices, the Under wins and Over strikeouts seem to be smart bets taking in sharp action. This makes sense as deGrom has finished second, second and first in the NL in strikeouts the past three seasons but finds wins harder to come by (10 in 2018, 11 in 2019). Throw in the fact that it’s a shorter season and the Mets bullpen is susceptible to blowing leads and the Under seems even more appealing.