The Republican candidate challenging Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claims he has a real shot at toppling the first-term Democratic socialist firebrand in the general election.
The campaign of ex-cop and retired teacher John Cummings said the 14th Congressional District, covering portions of The Bronx and Queens, is populated with practical, working-class voters — not radical leftists like AOC.
“A well-funded candidate with an NYPD/education background and deep ties to the district can beat AOC,” reads a campaign strategy memo prepared by Cummings campaign manager Chapin Fay and consultant Corey Vale, under the heading, “Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s Re-Election in Jeopardy.”
“We have raised over $3.5 million from over 70,000 donors from all 50 states; and we have the candidate and message to contrast with AOC’s radical socialist agenda and unbelievable disconnect from the very voters she claims to represent.”
They claim internal polling shows their campaign is “not a vanity exercise” and that AOC, while a well-funded national figure, is “vulnerable” in the district.
But Cummings is clearly the underdog and would have to make up ground, the memo’s own survey reveals.
An internal poll of 400 voters in the district in May found that 46 percent had a favorable view of the lefty incumbent and 35 percent had an unfavorable view with the rest undecided.
Fifty-two percent of respondents said they support her re-election in a district that President Barack Obama carried by 62 points and Hillary Clinton by 57 points against Donald Trump in 2016, the advisers said.
“Even in this overwhelmingly Democrat district, voters oppose Socialism,” the Cummings campaign advisers said.
Sixty percent of voters called AOC “very liberal” and 38 percent described her as an “out of touch radical,” the Cummings campaign said.
Seventy-one percent of voters had a favorable view of the NYPD, but that was before the protests ignited by the brutal death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis.
“Yes … John is a moderate Republican running in a solidly blue district. But AOC’s victory is far from certain and her negatives within the district are much higher than expected. Additionally, there has never been a well-funded Moderate Republican candidate running in District 14, let alone a common-sense cop and schoolteacher,” Fay and Vale said.
AOC easily defeated business journalist Michelle Caruso-Cabrera in the June 23 Democratic primary and it is widely believed she will easily win re-election.
The congresswoman captured 72 percent of the machine tally to 19 percent for her chief rival, followed by two other candidates.
Caruso-Cabrera pounded the incumbent for her opposition to Amazon’s scuttled plan to open a headquarters in Queens as well her votes in Congress — but the attacks didn’t resonate.
The Cummings campaign believes AOC’s opposition to the Amazon deal will hurt her among more moderate pro-jobs voters in the general election.
In response, AOC’s campaign released its own internal poll from May — before her primary victory — to counter Cummings and show that the congresswoman was in good stead with the overwhelming majority of her Democratic constituents.
“Attempts to use Democratic Socialism to attack the Congresswoman are also backfiring, as solid majorities of voters in the district have a positive impression of the term. Fully 62% of voters have a favorable opinion of ‘Democratic Socialism,’ including 58% of Latinx voters, 63% of African American voters, and 60% of white voters. Just 21% of voters have an unfavorable impression and roughly 1-in-6 (17%) are unfamiliar with the term or have no opinion on it,” AOC’s campaign memo said.
“It is perhaps unsurprising that these broadsides against Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez lack credibility, as fully 71% of voters report that the Congresswoman is doing an excellent or good job staying in touch with the needs of families in the Bronx and Queens. In addition, they register undeniable support—87%—for her constituent services during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“”Most voters in this district have made up their mind and are eminently pleased with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as their representative in Congress. The data suggests there is no real pathway for an opponent to make inroads against Congresswoman Ocasio-Cortez.”