The Cincinnati Bengals, who tend to bungle most things, need to take LSU’s Joe Burrow and resist the temptation to trade the first pick in this year’s NFL draft. Burrow, who threw 60 touchdown passes to lead the Tigers to the title in January, grew up in Ohio, so he’s a marketing dream. He’s the right quarterback at the right time.
Just under two weeks out from the April 23-25 draft, the rumors are flying. We hear the Miami Dolphins covet Burrow and are pondering a Godfather offer — four first-round picks or three first-rounders and a second-round pick — to move up four spots from No. 5. We hear the New England Patriots are pondering a blockbuster deal to move up for a quarterback.
“These rumors are just ridiculous and they get out of control,” said Michael Lombardi, a VSiN analyst and former NFL executive.
Trades are nearly impossible to predict and are the bane of a mock drafter’s existence. A trade can blow up the order of the top-10 picks. It’s wise to ignore the trade rumors, most of which are media creations or team-made smoke screens.
For those who are betting on the draft, I recommend doing your own mock. It helps set expectations for how the first round might unfold. Here are some wagers on draft props I have made, after doing the second of my four mock drafts:
Wide receivers drafted in the first round: Over 5.5 — I played this at -130 before the line ballooned, and it’s currently -200 at William Hill. My first mock had seven first-round receivers, which could be too many, but I’m very confident in five (CeeDee Lamb, Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins) and have three more graded as possible picks (Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, Denzel Mims). One or two of those receivers will probably drop to the second round. “I don’t think six is a lock,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. There are no locks, but I think six is a strong bet.
Jeff Okudah draft position: Over 3.5 — The Ohio State cornerback has only one potential spot to go in the top five, and that’s to Detroit at No. 3. But the Lions could trade down, and they might not go with Okudah anyway. After I bet this at -130, the William Hill line has moved to 4.5 (Over -140). As with all props, shop around for the best line and lowest price.
Jalen Hurts drafted in Rounds 4-7: +250 — The former Oklahoma quarterback is no surefire NFL prospect, and some teams likely view him more as a versatile athlete than a true quarterback. I expect him to go in the third round, but he could slip, and this is an attractive plus price at Caesars. I am considering betting Over his draft position of 59.5 (-112) at FanDuel.
Henry Ruggs first wide receiver drafted: +500 — Ruggs is commonly rated below Oklahoma’s Lamb and his former Alabama teammate Jeudy, and I don’t expect him to be the first receiver off the board. However, the 5/1 odds offered by Caesars are the best in the market. Ruggs ran the 40 in 4.27 seconds at the scouting combine and is compared to Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill, so teams find that type of speed tough to resist.
A.J. Epenesa draft position: Under 31.5 — Ohio State’s Chase Young is the top defensive end. Iowa’s Epenesa rates No. 2 and no worse than No. 3 among edge rushers, and I expect him to go in the top 20. It would be a big surprise if he slips out of the first round.