The Dow Jones and S&P 500 don’t have the only stocks in a coronavirus free fall.
Tua Tagovailoa’s draft stock could take a hit with sports at a standstill amid a report that “multiple teams” now prefer Justin Herbert “because of injuries and the unknowns,” according to NFL draft analyst Matt Miller.
The unknowns Miller is referencing pertain to 22-year-old Tagovailoa’s health and long-term durability. The Alabama quarterback entered the 2019 season as the front-runner to become the No. 1 overall pick, but suffered a devastating hip injury against Mississippi State on Nov. 16 that knocked him out for the season.
He finished with 2,840 yards, 33 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 71.4 completion percentage through nine games in 2019, while Oregon’s Herbert finished with 3,471 yards, 32 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 66.8 completion percentage.
“Don’t be surprised if Justin Herbert is the second quarterback picked because there are no questions about injuries when it comes to his evaluation,” Miller said on Monday.
Neither Tagovailoa nor LSU’s Joe Burrow participated in combine drills, but Burrow remains the unimpeachable No. 1 pick with no serious injury concerns to besmirch his record.
Tagovailoa did receive “overwhelmingly positive reports” from teams who were able to evaluate his medical status at the NFL Combine, and has looked impressively strong in videos posted to social media. He had planned on showcasing his skills and improvement for scouts at his own pro day on April 9.
Now, with austere measures being taken to enforce social distancing, teams will have to make a decision on Tagovailoa without assessing him in-person before the draft this coming month.
“In a normal year, you could honestly make the argument that Tua should be the No. 2 overall pick and maybe the No. 1 overall pick,” a high-level team executive told Miller on Sunday. “But because you’re taking a third party’s word for it when it comes to his medicals at this point in time that teams are just going to be a little bit hesitant.”
Herbert is not without fault, however. Ahead of the 2019 season, Miller noted “some concerns about the mental aspects” for the 22-year-old, who may lack the presence and gregarious nature necessary for franchise quarterbacks in the present era.
“I think people are worried about leadership and me being a pretty quiet guy,” Herbert told the Sun-Sentinel back in January. “But I would say I’m not too quiet. I’ll talk your ear off. So there are these things I want to be transparent with and give a good representation of myself.”
While social distancing would impact all players if team activities cannot resume in time for training camp, Tagovailoa may be hindered more than others since he likely needs more time to get back into football-ready shape.
It’s also possible teams will have lower appetites for risk in this draft overall with the coronavirus outbreak weighing heavily on people’s minds, which could impact multiple players, not just Tagovailoa.