Two items are becoming more and more probable if there is going to be a major league season this year:
1. It is going to begin without crowds.
2. It is going to begin without a standard minor league feeder system.
Central to the agreement that was reached last week between MLB and the Players Association was a good-faith understanding that there will be “best efforts to play as many games as possible.” Teams derive revenue and players earn salary from games, so both pledged commitment to a regular season as stocked with games as possible.
And it is just logical at this point, as one team executive said, “By a matter of weeks, we will be able to play games without crowds [before we can play games] with them.” Another official said, “I think the only way we play, at least initially, is without fans.”
For now, MLB has suspended operations until at least mid-May owing to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention edicts to avoid mass gatherings during the coronavirus pandemic. The agreement states that games will not resume until there are no federal, city or local restrictions on mass gatherings and until the commissioner determines, via consultation with medical experts, that no “unreasonable health and safety risk to players, staff, or spectators” persists. However, it also empowers the commissioner to discuss in good faith playing in neutral sites and without fans.
Gate and concession revenues are part of the financial foundation for teams — some more than others. But there will be a psychological boost for both the sport and, hopefully, the nation if games can continue. Thus, the 30 owners would likely be compelled to go forward if it were deemed safe for players — but not large spectator crowds — to reconvene. The games would — if network personnel were allowed in — be televised, which would provide revenue.
All sports are going to face the question of if fans will be eager to break isolation and want to return to mass gatherings or even if the CDC gives its blessing will lingering fear to avoid crowds continue, at least for a while. In addition, the financial setbacks being incurred by so many will limit the disposable income to attend sporting events for a greater segment. MLB has the largest inventory with each team — in a standard year — having 81 home dates. The NBA and NHL have 41 home dates, but are filling arenas of 15,000-20,000 on average as opposed to 35,000-45,000-ish for MLB.
Playing in empty stadiums, at least at the outset, could provide MLB a way to avoid what could be the embarrassment of small crowds while meeting the obligation to play as many games as feasible.
Part of playing as many games as possible will likely entail the addition of doubleheaders, the removal of some off days and an extension of the regular season into October. That is going to necessitate, first, the expansion of rosters from 26 to perhaps 30, especially early in the season to protect arms. But a quickened second spring training, more games in a consolidated period and the normal wear and tear of a season means more than 30 players are required as a season progresses. Normally, that means promoting players from the minors. But the question could be: what minors?
There are 162 minor league teams from Low-A to Triple-A. Think about how many jurisdictions spread across the country will have to give their blessing for games to resume in those locales. And those clubs derive a great deal of their revenue from crowds, and when will mass gatherings be allowed in those places?
Without uniformity of when a minor league season can resume, MLB would probably have to bring at least its upper-level minor leaguers back to a spring training site or another place deemed safe to stay sharp in some form for when the major league teams need supplementing. It could, at least initially, mimic Instructional League, which is held in the fall with teams inviting normally their best prospects for more intensive tutoring and games against other club’s instructional groups — if such games would be possible in this environment.
To provide some relief for minor leaguers, who if not on a 40-man roster are not protected by the Players Association, MLB announced on Tuesday that it will pay those minor leaguers $400 a week through May 31 and continue to provide medical benefits.
As part of that deal, MLB informed Minor League Baseball (MiLB) that MLB clubs “are unable to supply their Minor League affiliates with players as a result of the national emergency.” Each minor leaguer was having his uniform player contract suspended. MLB portrayed this as an obvious step and said not to read much into it.
But MLB has been at war with MiLB, wanting to reduce by as much as a quarter the number of minor league teams as a cost-cutting and efficiency measure. So it is hard to imagine in a season in which MLB revenues will be drastically down that financial support will return to previous levels, even if there is a wide go-ahead given in the near future to play both major and minor league baseball. In 2020, there could be a survive-and-advance mentality, which would mean for major league clubs finding ways to generally keep their feeder system improving players, but emphasizing this year those that might be needed at some point to help major league clubs.