NFL free agency is just around the corner, and it’s fair to say that there has never been a quarterback class like this in the NFL’s 100-year existence. There are Hall of Famers, Super Bowl MVPs, Pro Bowlers and QBs with loads of untapped potential that could change teams, either through a free-agent contract or via trade.
Tom Brady is main piece to the puzzle, and all of the dominoes will fall around his decision. If he leaves New England, there will be several ripple effects throughout the NFL, and we could be in store for an unprecedented amount of quarterback movement. Say he goes to the Titans – that means Ryan Tannehill is gone, maybe to the Raiders or Buccaneers, which means Derek Carr or Jameis Winston is gone, too. And so on and so forth.
There are an unlimited number of scenarios in 2020’s quarterback landscape, and over a dozen names that could be on the move. But who are the ones that could actually make a difference? Here are all the names that could be available, ranked from best to worst.
1. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Prescott’s chances of making it to the open market are slim — the Cowboys will likely franchise tag him or lock him up long-term. But on the off chance it doesn’t happen, he’s the best QB available. He had a monster year in 2019, throwing for 4,902 yards and 30 TDs in his first season with a dynamic pair of receivers (Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup) and a competent offensive coordinator (Kellen Moore). Questions still remain whether he can beat good teams (Dallas was 1-5 against teams with a winning record in 2019), but he’s a dynamic player and his best years are surely ahead of him.
2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots: The six-time Super Bowl winner and GOAT will be an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career. There’s no question that Brady isn’t quite the player he once was: he will be 43 when the 2020 season starts, and produced some of the lowest statistical output of his career in 2019. Of course, that “production” was still 24 TDs and over 4,000 yards, all with an XFL-level offensive line and receiver group. He may only have one or two years left, but we’ve seen this movie too many times to doubt TB12.
3. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders: Carr is not a free agent, and in fact has three years left on his contract at an AAV of around $19 million. In an age where average QBs are getting $30 million-plus (*cough* Jared Goff *cough*), the Raiders would be wise to leave well enough alone, right? But no, Jon Gruden’s gonna Gruden, and rumors have circulated that the Raiders may make a run at Brady or Ryan Tannehill. If they do, Carr immediately becomes an extremely valuable trade commodity, an above-average QB on a reasonable contract. Carr had one of the better years of his career in 2019, posting an 100.8 passer rating on 7.9 yards per attempt.
4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers: Switching quarterbacks is always a risk, but Newton is a risk in himself. When healthy, he’s a top-10 QB, but he has been significantly hampered by foot and shoulder injuries recently — he had the highest rate of uncatchable balls of any QB in his two 2019 games before going on IR. Like Carr, he’s not a free agent, but Carolina may go full rebuild and look to trade him. Whichever team buys in will pay for his past production, which it might not get. If he is healthy, though, he could instantly elevate a team. As recently as 2018, he completed 67.9 percent of his passes, while throwing for 3,395 yards and 24 TDs.
5. Teddy Bridgewater, New Orleans Saints: Much of Bridgewater’s value is a projection (he only has 34 career starts in six seasons), but he was extremely effective when thrown into duty last year after Drew Brees’ injury. He went 5-0 with a passer rating of 99.1, throwing nine TDs to only two INTs. He’s much more of a medium-range passer than a guy who will consistently beat you with the deep ball, which caps his upside a bit, and he has yet to play a full season since his devastating 2016 knee injury. But he is only 27, and could theoretically have several years of being a high-quality NFL starter ahead.
6. Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers: Rivers was an MVP candidate as recently as 2018, but the 38-year-old seemed to hit a wall last year, throwing 20 interceptions to 23 TDs. The Chargers were quick to move on from him after 16 seasons, and his unceremonious exit prompted questions on whether or not his days of being an effective starter were behind him at 38 years old. That was the age that Peyton Manning fell off a cliff, too. But he still threw for 4,615 yards in 2019, and behind a better offensive line (the Colts?), few would be surprised if he recaptured his form.
7. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans: Tannehill revitalized his career in a big way with Tennessee. The former Dolphins flameout went 7-3 as a starter in 2019, posting a league-leading 117.5 passer rating. He was in a system perfectly suited to him, involving a heavy running game and lots of deep balls on play action, and Derrick Henry was the engine behind the Titans’ explosive offense. Will Tannehill be that effective in another system? Or, with Henry and several Tennessee O-lineman also free agents, will he be able to repeat his success if the Titans re-sign him? Whoever lands Tannehill will likely have to pay for his 2019 production, but it was just 10 games in a largely milquetoast 100-game career.
8. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sports gambling is illegal in most of the 50 states, but don’t tell that to whoever ends up signing Winston, because gambles don’t come bigger than this. As Buccaneers coach Bruce Arians said: “There’s so much good,” with his 5,000 passing yards and 33 touchdowns in 2019, “and so much outright terrible,” with his 30 interceptions. If he cleans up his turnovers, he has as much long-term upside as anyone on this list (he did get LASIK surgery). But it’s just as likely that 2019 was his ceiling, and some team will ride the same Jameis-coaster we’ve seen in Tampa for years. Are you feeling lucky?
9. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals: Dalton still has a year left on his contract, but with Joe Burrow coming to town, no one is expecting the Red Rifle back in Cincinnati. He was the NFL’s statistically worst passer in 2019 (his 78.3 passer rating ranked dead last), but there is upside here: Dalton has been to three Pro Bowls, and he is only 32. He might have to earn a starter’s role, but there’s reason to believe his year under Zac Taylor (who?) wasn’t the best showcase for his talent. He does see the field well and throw the ball with accuracy when he isn’t getting barnstormed, which happened too often behind Cincinnati’s patchwork offensive line.
10. Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: The man who was benched for Ryan Tannehill will try to pull a Tannehill himself this offseason and seize the starting job somewhere else. It’ll be an uphill battle for Mariota, who has had his moments in the NFL (he won a playoff game against Kansas City in 2017) but ultimately wasn’t good enough in Tennessee. For a five-year veteran, he doesn’t see the field well enough, and he often crumbles in the face of pressure. But he could be a fit for a team that utilizes a West Coast, RPO-based offense like he ran at Oregon, where he won the Heisman Trophy.
11. Nick Foles, Jacksonville Jaguars: Another QB that is not a free agent, but could be on the move thanks to the $88 million mistake Jacksonville made last year in bringing him to Duval County. His contract is untradable on its own – the Jaguars will have to eat some of his salary or throw in a draft pick – but if the Jaguars can manage to get him out of town, he could be useful as a backup or a “competition QB.” He has never been an effective quarterback outside of Philadelphia, but despite all the criticism, he’ll always be “Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles.”
12. Case Keenum, Washington Redskins: Keenum might be the poster boy of why team’s shouldn’t pay for one year’s worth of production: after an MVP-caliber season with Minnesota, he signed with Denver for one mediocre year, then was traded to Washington where he was benched for Dwayne Haskins. He’s probably a backup at this point.
13. Alex Smith, Washington Redskins: Alex Smith’s status entirely depends upon his health – he suffered an awful leg injury in 2018 and hasn’t seen the field since. Yet there are rumblings that he could be ready to play in 2020, and if he is, he becomes an intriguing trade chip, or free agent if Washington wants to cut him and eat his huge dead cap number. He may not return to his days of being an above-average starter, but if he wants to play again, he could at least be a serviceable backup.
14. Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints: Saints coach Sean Payton spent a lot of time this offseason talking Hill up as a potential franchise QB, even going as far as to compare him to Steve Young. Uh, the man is 29 and has 15 career pass attempts. He only completed six of those attempts. Sean Payton does know quarterbacks, but he also knows Hill is a restricted free agent and the Saints get draft pick compensation if someone gives Hill a huge offer sheet. New Orleans reportedly will use a first-round tender on Hill.
15. Joe Flacco, Denver Broncos: Another Super Bowl MVP, the book is pretty much closed on Flacco at this point. He was pretty brutal in Denver, throwing six touchdown passes in eight starts. He might be a solid backup somewhere, but teams shouldn’t expect him to wind the clock back to 2013 and go on another epic playoff run.