LAS VEGAS — It’s amusing to listen to Dabo Swinney’s rants about Clemson being a disrespected underdog. It’s worth a laugh because it’s phony coach-speak and because he actually said it’s the “dadgumest thing” that so many people apparently wanted his team excluded from the College Football Playoff.
But Swinney’s players take his message seriously, so it becomes a handicapping angle.
LSU is a 6-point favorite against Clemson in Monday’s national championship game, and the line could tick up to 6½ or even 7 in the hours before kickoff in New Orleans. The betting public has fallen head over heels in love with LSU and its seemingly unstoppable offense, led by Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow.
Swinney will repeatedly remind his orange-clad Tigers that they are ’dogs and nobody believes they can win. He has done this before, and it’s a proven motivational ploy.
Clemson has been favored only twice in its past 11 bowl games, yet is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins. Swinney has led his team to three of the past four national title games, with two upsets of Alabama, including last year’s 44-16 blowout.
Underdogs are on a 6-0 ATS run in the past six national championship games, including three Clemson covers. Favorites of five points or more are 5-9 straight up and 3-11 ATS in national title games since 1999.
Motivational angles and trends aside, Clemson has a few matchup advantages in its favor. Start with Swinney, who has valuable experience that LSU coach Ed Orgeron lacks while making his first playoff appearance.
Swinney also has Brent Venables, arguably the best defensive coordinator in college football. Venables made the right adjustments in a Fiesta Bowl semifinal two weeks ago, when Clemson held Ohio State to seven points in the second half of a 29-23 comeback win. Venables has had time to scheme for an LSU offense that scored 63, 37, 50, 56, 58 and 46 points in its past six games. But it’s also an offense that was contained in a 23-20 victory over Auburn in late October, so Venables will study that tape and see what Auburn’s defense did best.
Burrow has an eye-popping 55 touchdown passes in 14 games, but he shredded several overrated SEC defenses before throwing for seven first-half TDs against Oklahoma in a Peach Bowl mismatch. Clemson finished the regular season with the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 10.6 points per game.
And this is the first mention of Trevor Lawrence, who’s being overshadowed by the Burrow hype. Lawrence, who has 201 consecutive pass attempts without an interception, is 25-0 as a starter for a Clemson team on a 29-game win streak. He has big receivers who can exploit mismatches, he can run wild and he has the better running back in Travis Etienne.
The total of 69½ appears accurate. In a game that should turn into a shootout sooner or later, the best way to bet the total might be in-game wagering. Although the Superdome is seen as a home-field advantage for LSU, the environment might actually create more pressure on the home team (and it did not prevent the Saints from losing in the NFL playoffs last week).
The biggest pregame edge is the inflated point spread. Lawrence does not know how to lose, and he’s starting with a one-touchdown lead.
The pick: Clemson +6.
Last week: 1-1. Season: 33-32-3.