LAS VEGAS — The hype is building for Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game between undefeated No. 1 LSU and undefeated No. 3 Clemson, the defending champion.
Game of the Year? Maybe. Game of the Decade? Probably too early to call. But for our purposes, we’ll go with what William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich told VSiN: “It’s going to be the biggest-bet college game ever.”
And from a gambling perspective, it’s shaping up as Pros vs. Joes.
The Joes (aka the betting public) love Heisman Trophy runaway winner Joe Burrow and LSU, and have bet those Tigers up from an opener of -3 to the current consensus line of -6 as of Thursday afternoon.
The Pros (aka sharps or wiseguys) are waiting for the best price on little ol’ Clemson as the line continues to get inflated, even though Clemson has a star quarterback in Trevor Lawrence (25-0 as a starter) and is going for its third national title in four years.
Last month, in fact, several oddsmakers had Clemson as a 3-point favorite in what was then a mythical matchup, but during LSU’s 63-28 rout of Oklahoma in the first national semifinal on Dec. 28, Circa Sports in Vegas opened LSU -3 versus the eventual winner of Clemson-Ohio State. After Clemson rallied to win 29-23, most other books opened LSU -3¹/₂ or -4, and the line has been moving upward ever since.
“We opened our line as LSU -5½ the morning of Dec. 29,” said Tom Gable, director of race and sports at Atlantic City’s Borgata Hotel Casino, which has both over-the-counter and mobile wagering. “We have stayed at that number with the exception of a brief few hours on Dec. 30 going to LSU -6.”
Gable said the biggest bets they’ve taken have been five-figure wagers on LSU to win straight up on the money line, which was up to -239 on Thursday.
“[As of Thursday morning,] 56 percent of the tickets have been written on LSU and 76 percent of the money is on LSU,” Gable added. “Most of the money we have taken would be from recreational players so far.”
Typically, sportsbook operators say 90 percent of the action doesn’t come in until game day, so we ain’t seen nothin’ yet. It’s expected that the line will continue to rise and, in fact, it was already up to LSU -6¹/₂ on Thursday afternoon at the Golden Nugget in downtown Vegas.
LSU backers are emboldened by the fact Ed Orgeron’s team has gone 9-3-2 against the spread this season and outscored opponents by 27 points per game (average margin of 49-22). Though the conventional wisdom believes Clemson hasn’t been as dominant (mostly due to its close call in a 21-20 win over unranked North Carolina in September), the fact is these Tigers actually have been better to backers at 11-3 ATS and have outscored opponents by 33 points per game (average margin of 45-12).
LSU and SEC apologists will say that’s due to Clemson playing in the weaker ACC, but how you interpret those facts probably determines which side you’ll be on Monday. If you like LSU, grab the -5¹/₂ if you can. If you want Clemson, wait to see if the line (or money line of +190) climbs higher over the weekend.
As for the Over/Under, the public loves to cheer and bet for scoring, so the total has been set at a very high 69¹/₂ points. But with the focus on Burrow and Lawrence, who are projected to be the No. 1 picks in the next two NFL drafts, and the game being played in the friendly confines of the Superdome, it’s expected the majority of the bets will continue to be on the Over, with the sharps buying back on the Under.
“We opened the total at 69½ and again that ticked up to 70 and then back to 69½, which is where we still are,” Gable said of totals action at the Borgata. That has been the same at books from coast to coast.