When the bowl lines first came out on Dec. 8, several sportsbooks had Kansas State as a 1- to 2-point favorite over Navy in Tuesday’s Liberty Bowl (3:45 p.m., ESPN).
Early bettors took Navy and bet the Midshipmen to favoritism, and it remained that way after Navy ran over Army 31-7 in their annual showcase. But I believe the original linemakers had it right all along and I’m taking K-State as VSiN’s Top Play for Tuesday.
We know Navy is led by dual-threat QB Malcolm Perry, but Kansas State has the nation’s No. 27 defense in points allowed (21 points per game) and allow only 150 rushing yards per game. The last time Navy, which plays a relatively soft schedule, faced a defense as strong as K-State, it was held to a season-low 20 points by Notre Dame in a 52-20 loss.
Meanwhile, Kansas State is led by a dual-threat QB of its own in Skylar Thompson, who has thrown for twice as many yards (2,191 vs. 1,027) and twice as many TD passes (12 vs. 6) as Perry and has also rushed for 10 TDs (vs. 21 for Perry, though we expect that to be negated by the K-State defense).
So, basically, we have the Wildcats as the better overall team and the more likely winner.
I’m in a dozen bowl contests and have Kansas State +2.5 across the board. The line went up to +3 on Monday, so grab that if you want insurance in case Navy wins by 3, but this is VSiN’s Top Play because we expect K-State to pull the outright upset, so let’s close the year with a money-line winner! Happy New Year!
The Play: Kansas St. +125.