Unfortunately, the New Year’s Eve bowl schedule is devoid of blockbusters, but the nightcap that should end just before the ball drops in Times Square has thriller potential for fans and bettors.
That’s the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio featuring Pac-12 runner-up Utah and Big 12 “host” Texas. Utah has a chip on its shoulder after a shockingly bad loss to Oregon with a possible playoff berth in play. Texas, which stunned Georgia in last year’s Sugar Bowl, is led by head coach Tom Herman and his great career record as an underdog.
Let’s run the key indicator stats VSiN has been using for bowl coverage on these pages. Note that strength of schedule rankings are from Jeff Sagarin’s data at USA Today.
- Utah (-7) vs. Texas, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Utah: 36th offense, 3rd defense, 48th schedule, +8 turnover margin.
Texas: 15th offense, 108th defense, 4th schedule, +6 turnover margin.
Utah didn’t play to those stats in its two highest-profile games of the season. The Utes looked more like a Mountain West team at USC and then vs. Oregon in the conference title tilt. But, a safe, physical approach give Utah a great chance to control its own destiny against that very soft Texas defense.
Texas began its season with a competitive home loss to LSU that looks much better in retrospect than it did at the time. But its performance in Big 12 play looks worse. Not much separates Texas and Iowa State in the big picture. The Cyclones were crushed 33-9 by Notre Dame this past Saturday. Iowa State was outrushed 208-45, possibly foreshadowing point-of-attack issues for Texas.
In betting markets, the Alamo Bowl sat idly at Utah -7 for weeks. Sharps and squares alike have learned its best to wait for news about suspensions or injuries before making big bowl investments. The first moves you see on game day will likely represent sharp preferences.
- The case for Utah: This group should be fired up to atone for the Oregon debacle. And, it will be positioned to do so by pounding its strength at a very soft defense. That’s typically a recipe for bowl blowouts. There’s a chance Texas doesn’t bring much fire. A trip to San Antonio isn’t anything special for the Longhorns. Could be a lethargic ending to a disappointing season.
- The case for Texas: Utah may have created illusions through the season in a soft conference, which were exposed away from home in its most difficult challenges. Obviously the version of Utah that lost badly to USC and Oregon shouldn’t be laying a touchdown to anyone in a big game. In terms of skill sets, these could be relatively even teams. Longhorn backers will be getting about a touchdown with a proven “underdog” coach.
Looks like figuring out the truth about Utah is the key to picking this winner.