Kentucky and Louisville, two teams that have been ranked No. 1 this season, will renew their intrastate rivalry on Saturday in Lexington, Ky.
John Calipari has never lost there to the Cardinals, but this time it might be different. Louisville ranks fifth in the country in points per possession on offense thanks to three of the Cardinals’ top four scorers shooting more than 41 percent from 3-point range.
The teams rank similarly in a lot of defensive metrics, with the Cardinals better in most of them. For points per possession allowed on defense, Louisville ranks 25th in the country, while Kentucky is 29th. Louisville ranks 16th in rebound rate, while the Wildcats are 26th.
Louisville also will make Kentucky play to its weakness, perimeter shooting. The Cardinals are forcing more than 40 percent of opponents’ shots to be taken from the outside and rank ninth in the country in two-point shooting percentage defense.
With Kentucky ranking 349th in the country in percentage of points that come from 3-point range and 330th in 3-point shooting percentage, things set up well for Louisville to earn its first win in Rupp Arena since 2008.
The play: Louisville, pick ’em.