Let’s discuss three confluences:
1.The Mets just escaped a sizable portion of the $29.5 million owed Yoenis Cespedes for 2020 — perhaps as much as $23.5 million if he does not return from the foot and ankle injuries he suffered on his farm last May. They have a large financial backbone coming if Steve Cohen is approved as primary owner. The Wilpons, therefore, might have only 2020 left to leave a more positive mark as owners.
The Mets hate when the Yankees dominate the New York conversation — hello, Gerrit Cole. And the showman in Brodie Van Wagenen itches to do more than the winter of Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha.
2. The NL East has four good teams simultaneously. Internally, the Mets believe they can stand toe-to-toe with the Braves, Nationals and Phillies and win the division. Of course, Atlanta, Washington and Philadelphia believe the same. The NL East ecosystem is such that if Josh Donaldson decides to, say, go to Washington rather than stay with Atlanta in free agency, it will shift some power. The division is so competitive that any significant move will have the same impact.
3. Because most of the best free agents have signed, the star-laden trade market becomes more prominent, namely the Red Sox’s Mookie Betts, the Indians’ Francisco Lindor, the Brewers’ Josh Hader, the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado, and the Cubs’ Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras.
Put all of the confluences into one larger confluence, and shouldn’t the Mets — especially because of the projected competitiveness atop the NL East — be as active in this high-end market as any team?
Actually, one player in the group stands out the most for the Mets: Arenado.
But before explaining why, let’s look at the others. The Red Sox are trying harder to trade an expensive pitcher such as David Price rather than Betts as a way to meet ownership’s desire to go under the $208 million luxury-tax threshold. But Betts has shown no inclination to sign long-term before free agency and, beyond the rote pledge of love for wherever you play, no sense he would prefer being a lifelong Red Sox.
The Red Sox do not project as good as the Yankees or Rays in the AL East. Their best long-term plan — as painful as it would be to their fans — is to trade Betts for as many future assets as possible then, if he really wants to remain in Boston, re-sign him next offseason.
Lindor is two years from free agency. As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported, the Indians wanted teams’ best offers this weekend. I heard the Indians want closure — to either trade their biggest star or know well before spring they will not be dealing him, so as to limit distractions. The Dodgers and Padres — stocked with farm talent — are best positioned to land Lindor.
I have written previously about why I think the Mets should ignore Hader, namely because of how much the Brewers have used him to make the playoffs the past two years and how volatile relievers are in general. Bryant or Contreras are the most likely from this group to be moved, and they would upgrade the Mets’ offense. But the Mets should not shun defense any longer, and Bryant might be growing out of third base and Contreras is a better version of Wilson Ramos.
I’m not sure the Mets could win a trade fight for Arenado. He has a no-trade clause and would probably prefer returning home to Southern California and the Dodgers. But if the Rockies really find the nerve to deal arguably their best player ever, will they do it in their division and subject their angry fans to seeing him at Coors three series a year?
Arenado has seven years at $234 million left on his pact, but can opt out after the 2021 season. So, unless an agreement about him not triggering that at all or at least waiting until after, say, 2023 can be arranged, it would be hard to figure out what exactly to give up for someone who might be around for just two years.
And what do you give up? The Mets almost certainly would have to begin with someone off their major league roster, such as Jeff McNeil or Brandon Nimmo, which would lessen some of the impact of the addition. It would be more cautiously logical to wait until July.
When the Yankees added Cole, they already knew they will be playing big games. The Mets can wait, and if they are in it in July, try to make a big strike then. Conceivably, Betts, Lindor and Arenado might still be available. Or the Mets can simply wait until next offseason when they have a ton of dough coming off the books, will know even more about McNeil, Nimmo and Amed Rosario, perhaps have Cohen’s deep pockets in full and just buy Betts without giving up any proven talent.
The Mets, who bled a lot of farm talent to land Edwin Diaz and Marcus Stroman, do have to worry about a looming price for doing that, especially if they keep sending out their best prospects for someone like Arenado.
But if Arenado were willing to agree not to opt out and to come to New York, that would be hard to ignore. He is one of the best defensive third basemen. Ever. He plays daily with passion. Has his offense been aided by high altitude? Sure. But he has the fifth-most road homers over the past four years and, like DJ LeMahieu, my suspicion is he would show what a great hitter he is anywhere if liberated from Coors.
All of that is why the Dodgers, Braves (if they don’t re-sign Donaldson), Cardinals and many others would likely line up for Arenado. The Mets should not shy away from that line. They have a confluence of reasons to try and land him.