Saturday’s college basketball rivalry renewal matching Syracuse and Georgetown (1 p.m., Fox) features a pair of teams with obvious early-season betting narratives.
Syracuse has shown a clear tendency this season to clobber cupcakes (3-1 against the spread when laying eight or more points), but flunk litmus tests (1-4 ATS at prices from +2¹/₂ to -4).
The latter had been 0-4 ATS before Jim Boeheim’s Orange stunned Georgia Tech 97-63 getting +2¹/₂ on the road. Maybe that was the trend buster. But, bettors can’t assume one big win trumps embarrassing losses to Iowa, Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Virginia, all of which missed the point spread by double digits.
Playing at Georgetown is obviously a litmus test. This season’s “betting profile” suggests you should avoid Syracuse.
Patrick Ewing’s Hoyas have shown a perfect ’dog/favorite split. They are 4-0 ATS as underdogs against Texas, Duke, Oklahoma State, and SMU … with three outright victories that beat the market by double digits. But, they’re 0-5 ATS as favorites, including outright losses to UNC-Greensboro and Penn State.
That suggests a simple enough strategy. Back the Hoyas when getting points, fade them as chalk. Georgetown is expected to be a slight home favorite Saturday, the dark side of its betting profile.
Wait a second … you can’t bet favored Georgetown at a value price even though it recently crushed Texas, Oklahoma State and SMU? And, you shouldn’t bet possibly rejuvenated “rivalry underdog” Syracuse after a great win because of a trend weighed down by losses last month?
That’s the danger of building narratives from short-term point spread samples. Sometimes records really are informative, especially when connected to teams’ skill sets. Other times, they’re accurately telling you “old news” that’s dated. Something “used” to be true (the Tennessee Titans were fade material before Ryan Tannehill started at quarterback).
Unfortunately, trends are mostly random and irrelevant. Roulette spins will cluster with blacks or reds through a bunch of spins. Doesn’t mean anything. College basketball is so scattershot these days that anything looking like an angle may just be jumpers falling in some cases, but not others.
Here are traps to avoid if you’re trying your luck as a “situational” handicapper:
- Don’t hunt for trends or angles that back up your preconceived notions about a matchup. You’ll just spin yourself into oversized bets that probably should have been passes in the first place.
- Don’t assume a convergence of multiple angles makes a bet stronger. Many (or all) of those trends are just trivia. A play backed up by piles of trivia isn’t worth anything.
- Don’t let opposing trends cancel a play you have good reasons to like. If a fresh full-court press defense is about to face a tired turnover-prone offense, it doesn’t matter that the sloppy offense is 13-2 ATS on that day of the week. Take the force most likely to control its destiny.
Whether handicapping Syracuse-Georgetown or any other college hoops showcase, keep trends in perspective … or keep them on the shelf.