It’s already become clear in the 2019 MLB playoffs that pitching performances in the middle and late innings likely will determine who advances from the League Championship Series into the World Series.
In the dramatic divisional rounds, failures were blamed on pitchers who lacked mental toughness (and the managers who trusted them). Successes were credited to clutch conquering heroes (and the tactical geniuses who used them properly).
The Yankees scored the only division sweep looking like the latter. Though none of their starting pitchers lasted more than five innings (Masahiro Tanaka pitched exactly five, James Paxton 4²/₃ and Luis Severino four), middle and late relievers kept the Minnesota Twins in check with a combined 2.03 ERA and a 16-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Will that continue in a longer, best-of-seven series against a less-intimidated opponent?
Sharps focus on team and player skill sets rather than dramatic license. Let’s look at strengths and weaknesses of New York’s key relief arms. All stats listed are from fangraphs.com.
Mid-game relievers
- Tommy Kahnle saw action in all three games against the Twins. He had a very high strikeout percentage this year (35.5), but was home-run prone when hitters made contact (1.32 per nine innings). An xFIP of 2.69 (a fielding independent measure from analytics designed to parallel ERA) speaks very well of his skills. You can’t be a “closer” in the fifth or sixth inning. The Yankees will use him as a “door-slammer,” hoping opposing hitters don’t adjust on repeated viewings.
- Adam Ottavino is wild and walk-prone (a high 14.1 walk percentage). But it’s hard to take him deep (0.68 homers per nine innings). Can he maintain his cool under the playoff spotlight?
Setup men
- Chad Green pitched in two of three games versus Minnesota and will get the call in high-leverage innings this series. His 33.2 strikeout percentage is lethal. But, he can be home-run prone (1.3 per nine innings) if hitters get a read.
- Zack Britton isn’t your standard reliever. He has a much lower strikeout percentage (21.6) than the flamethrowers, but usually keeps the ball in the park (0.4 homers per nine innings, though he did allow one to the Twins). His 77-percent ground ball rate is far and away the highest on the Yankees. He’s a clear change-of-pace choice, particularly with runners on base.
Closer
- Aroldis Chapman is the total package. A high strikeout percentage of 36.2, a low home run rate of 0.47 per nine innings. His xFIP of 2.86 is stellar. His reputation precedes him and is well-earned.
VSiN suggests you play very close attention to how well these relievers control their own destiny through the ALCS. That will help you make smart bets on or against the Yankees (and on Over/Unders). Don’t make any futures bets to win the World Series unless you’re confident these guys will get the job done the rest of the month.
And be sure to force yourself to handicap bullpen (and managerial) dynamics for all remaining teams. Postseason baseball continues to evolve. You have to evolve with it.