Students, welcome to this class on unpredictability. I’m your instructor, Professor Madman. Please hold your questions until the end of the lecture.
Now, imagine if movie director M. Night Shyamalan were an NFL coach. He is known for such works as “Sixth Sense” and “Unbreakable” and “The Village.” He has spent his career crafting surprise endings — some much better than others.
M. Night’s ultimate goal is doing something the audience doesn’t expect, subverting broadly accepted notions. The entirety of his professional existence depends on his element of “the surprise.”
If he were an NFL coach, which coach would he be? Which coach seems to pride himself on doing strange things with his running backs from week to week?
Prof. Madman: Klaus, I see your hand is raised. But I specifically asked for questions to wait.
Klaus: I know, but I know the answer. It’s Bill Belichick.
Madman: Well, Klaus, you are both wrong and right. Yes, Belichick does offer weekly surprises in his use of running backs, but that is not the coach I’m going to talk about today. That coach is Doug Pederson of the Eagles.
Wilhelm: But professor, didn’t Jordan Howard claim the role as lead running back for Philadelphia with his monster game Thursday against a strong Packers defense — 115 total yards with three receptions and three touchdowns?
Madman: Umm, yeah, that was great. But did you watch the first few weeks? Rookie Miles Sanders, a second-round pick, has an increased workload each week.
Rebecca: Sorry, professor. I didn’t do my homework. What happened the first three weeks?
Madman: Well, Rebecca, both were equally bad for two weeks. Sanders was statistically better in Week 3, but Howard had the TD. But the eye test was leaning Sanders. Then Howard had the big game Thursday — 15-for-87 with two TDs. Yet Sanders was on par, absent the TDs — 11-for-72.
Wilhelm: So Howard is getting the touchdown carries. Doesn’t that count for something?
Madman: Certainly. Howard has four total TDs and Sanders has none. But, three of Howard’s scores came last week, so he also hasn’t been a TD magnet.
Klaus: But using Howard worked. Why wouldn’t Pederson stick to what works?
Madman: I appreciate your aggression, Klaus. But look at Pederson’s history with Ryan Mathews, LeGarrette Blount, Jay Ajayi or any collection of other backs: Pederson hasn’t delivered a solid fantasy running back over the course of a season since taking over in 2016, despite his team producing a strong running game.
Klaus: Yeah? Prove it.
Madman: OK, since 2016, the best fantasy finishes by an Eagles running back are 24th by Darren Sproles and 31st by Ryan Mathews, both in 2016. With none in the top 40 since. This isn’t a backfield that has a history of supporting fantasy teams.
Rebecca: So what do we do?
Madman: Good question, Rebecca. Use this outlier of Howard production as leverage for a trade. Go to someone who didn’t take this class and deal Howard at peak value. That’s your homework for this week. Good luck, class.