“There’s talk on the street; It sounds so familiar. Great expectations, everybody’s watching you.”
Those are lyrics from 1976 by the Eagles. But it’s the 2019 Giants who have the “New Kid in Town.”
Forget for a moment that the Giants needed a missed chip-shot field goal by the Buccaneers to win, 32-31, at Tampa Bay last Sunday in Daniel Jones’ first NFL start. The rookie from Duke instantly reenergized a franchise that unbelievably had lost 27 of its previous 35 games dating to the 2016 wild-card playoffs.
In a heartbeat, he rescued a 2019 season that already was starting to flatline. And his 18-point second-half comeback was done without the services of the team’s best player, Saquon Barkley. Even the defense, shredded almost laughably through 10 quarters, joined the party with a three-point second half.
Jones will have plenty of growing pains this season against the tough defenses of the Vikings, Patriots, Bears and some others. But for one more week, the joyride will continue against a complete mess of a Washington Redskins team whose own potential franchise-turning rookie quarterback, Dwayne Haskins, is not ready to step in. I’d need at least a touchdown, maybe more, to consider taking Washington here on a short week.
The pick: Giants, -3.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-4¹/₂) over Carolina Panthers: Carolina’s own “New Kid,” Kyle Allen, started in place of the near-comatose Cam Newton and led a 38-20 victory at Arizona last week. This is a tougher spot in a road back-to-back with a seemingly reasonable spread.
Cleveland Browns (+7) over BALTIMORE RAVENS: A lot of people are bailing out on Baker Mayfield and coach Freddie Kitchens at 1-2 after three weeks of lackluster offensive output. Nevertheless, there could be value in this line as the number spiked from 5¹/₂ to 7, though the Browns came within 4 yards of forcing overtime against a very good Rams team.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (+15¹/₂) over Los Angeles Chargers: This might be a suicide mission, but the thinking here is the Dolphins have a shot to cash a ticket. Their margin of defeat has gone from 49 to 43 to 25, against teams that are a combined 8-1. At halftime, they trailed the Patriots 13-0 and the Cowboys 10-6. Now the Chargers, who averaged 15 points in losing their past two games, have to go cross-country to play a 10 a.m. body-clock game in 86-degree heat and possible rain. They’d be happy with any size victory.
Oakland Raiders (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: It’s a 10 a.m. body-clock game for the Raiders, too, but I’m hoping back-to-back losses of 18 and 20 points to the Chiefs and Vikings will serve as a good wake-up call for them. T.Y. Hilton, who has four of the Colts’ touchdowns this season, is questionable with a quad injury. If he’s out, this could stay close.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6¹/₂) over DETROIT LIONS: Patrick Mahomes put up 71 points in two games against the Patriots’ defense last season (remember, he never got his hands on the ball in overtime of the AFC Championship). Don’t see ex-Pat Matt Patricia’s overachieving Lions staying within a touchdown in the perfect indoor conditions of Ford Field.
New England Patriots (-7) over BUFFALO BILLS: Looking for this battle of 3-0 AFC teams to be a tight one, but at a touchdown or less, I’m inclined to side with Tom Brady, who’s 30-3 in his career vs. Buffalo. Josh Allen played once against Bill Belichick’s defense last year, a 24-12 New England victory that saw Allen get intercepted twice and throw one garbage-time touchdown.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-4) over Tennessee Titans: Former NFL exec Michael Lombardi, now of VSiN, often says that bad offensive lines don’t travel. You can’t do much worse than the nine sacks the Titans allowed at Jacksonville last week. But with star left tackle Taylor Lewan suspended one more week, things don’t figure to get any easier for Marcus Mariota.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (+5) over Seattle Seahawks: See some value at this price with the Cardinals, who have covered against the Lions and Ravens. Seattle’s two wins were by one point and two points. It’ll be fun to see Kyler Murray go toe-to-toe with Russell Wilson.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-9¹/₂) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Normally will give the Bucs a nod as heavy underdogs because there is some offensive firepower there. But am down on the ‘D’ after seeing Jones and the Giants shred it. Need just one Jameis Winston pick-six to make this a runaway for the Rams.
Minnesota Vikings (+2) over CHICAGO BEARS: Mitchell Trubisky had a little revival against the clueless Redskins, but in this NFC North matchup, it feels as if I’m getting the better team with points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over DENVER BRONCOS: The Jaguars are coming off a nine-sack feast against the Titans. Denver has a better offensive line than does Tennessee, but the Broncos also have a statue at quarterback in Joe Flacco. Two weeks ago, the Jags defense also was stout in a 13-12 loss at Houston.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+2¹/₂) over Dallas Cowboys: Dallas has had little competition from the pre-Daniel Jones Giants, Redskins and Dolphins. A bit surprised to see the ’Boys favored in the Superdome after the Saints scored in all kinds of ways in a 33-27 win in Seattle that was 33-14 with less than three minutes to go.
Monday
Cincinnati Bengals (+4) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Cincinnati has covered in its two road games at Seattle and Buffalo, and I can’t come up with a good reason to lay more than a field goal with the winless and Big Ben-less Steelers.
Bets bets: Giants, Texans, Rams.
Lock of the week: Giants (Locks 1-2 in 2019).
Last week: 11-5 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.
Thursday: Eagles (W).