Daniel Jones takes the field Sunday for his second career NFL start when the Giants host the Redskins (1 p.m., Fox). Betting markets have largely reacted to last week’s upset victory over the Buccaneers with a big yawn.
The Giants spent most of the week laying -2¹/₂ or -3 points versus their division rivals. You regulars know that’s about the standard value of home-field advantage in pro football. The market usually allots 3 points, but many respected bettors believe 2¹/₂ makes more sense for divisional games because of site and travel familiarity.
Basically, the sum components of market influences believe the Giants are either even with Washington or a half-point better on a power-rating scale. Given how poorly Washington has played this season, that isn’t much of an endorsement.
Let’s update VSiN’s assessment of “market” power ratings. Jonathan Von Tobel (“The Edge”) and I put our heads together every week to evaluate what point spreads are saying about the league’s top-to-bottom scale. We’ll start with the NFC. Differentials reflect neutral-field comparisons.
NFC: Rams 85, Cowboys 85, Packers 83, Vikings 83, Eagles 82, Bears 82, Seahawks 82, Falcons 82, Saints (Teddy Bridgewater) 80, 49ers 80, Panthers (Kyle Allen) 80, Lions 79, Buccaneers 78, Giants (Jones) 75, Redskins 75, Cardinals 74.
Being about the same as Washington means you’re one of the worst teams in the NFC and the league. Shouldn’t last week’s offensive explosion count for more than that? The G-Men just beat a 78 on the road. Could they be as good as a 79 or an 80?
If you believe that, start betting. If the Giants are more like the Lions or Panthers, they’re a steal at -3 or better. And, they’ll be a steal for a few games more if Jones really is going to have that kind of impact.
Betting markets are reminding you:
- One game isn’t enough to judge a rookie quarterback.
- The Giants’ defense is still very soft, which makes it tough to protect leads.
- Tampa Bay miscues basically gave the game away last week. Bettors can’t count on something like that happening every week.
The Jets are idle this week. That gives bettors a chance to think about where the team should sit on the AFC scale once Sam Darnold is able to return from mononucleosis. Without him, the Jets were priced as expansion caliber.
AFC: Patriots 90, Chiefs 88, Ravens 84, Texans 82, Chargers 82, Colts 82, Titans 81, Bills 80, Browns 80, Steelers (Mason Rudolph) 78, Raiders 78, Broncos 77, Bengals 77, Jaguars (Gardner Minshew) 77, Jets (Luke Falk) 70, Dolphins 63.
Where would you stick the Jets with a healthy Darnold? Should they rise up to 77 because he’s a touchdown better than Falk? Or, are other weaknesses showing that suggest a lift to 73 or 74 makes more sense? What would it take to rise to 80?
VSiN will continue to update “market” power ratings through the season so you can look for openings to make smart bets.