ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Numbers are the coldest facts in baseball and never lie. They can be massaged to benefit an opinion, but scores, batting averages, standings and ERA are always straight shooters.
And that meant, heading into the Yankees-Rays game Wednesday night in Tropicana Field, the likelihood of the Yanks facing the Twins in the upcoming ALDS was strong.
The AL East champion Yankees trailed the AL West champion Astros by 1 ½ lengths for the prize of having home-field advantage, if each were to advance to the best-of-seven ALCS for the second time in three years. And since the Astros won four of the seven regular–season games this year against the Yankees, they win the tiebreaker.
Counting Wednesday night’s action, the Astros’ magic number to ensure they would play four of seven ALCS games at Minute Maid Park was at four.
So, even though the Yankees could slide by the Astros into the No. 1 seed, which would mean they would face the wild-card game survivor — the Indians, Rays and Athletics are in play for that — Twins-Yankees in a best of five with three tilts at Yankee Stadium is the way to bet it.
While Aaron Boone explained the Yankees have an army of scouts following all four possible ALDS opponents, and would dive further into teams when it gets closer to knowing who they are playing, he said he is impressed with the Twins, who have lost an incredible 13 straight postseason games to the Yankees.
“They are a beast. Obviously we had a pretty epic series with them, an epic offensive series with them at their place in July so we know how dangerous they are,’’ Boone said of the Twins, who opened play Wednesday night with a 97-60 record under first-year manager Rocco Baldelli. “A couple of starting pitchers who have had really good years for them.’’
Those would be Jose Berrios (13-8, 3.70 ERA) and Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA.
The offensive series Boone mentioned was a three-game meeting at Target Field in late July when the Yankees won two and outscored the Twins, 30-27. The Yankees also took two of three from the Twins at Yankee Stadium in early May, when the bats weren’t blazing.
Boone also made sure to mention more than the Twins as a possible first-round foe.
“Not to cover my bases but I look at everybody who is in this playoff mix as very real, very scary and capable of beating anyone,’’ Boone said. “We know it is going to be a challenge whoever it is we end up playing. We look forward to that. In Minnesota’s case, it is a team that if you are not executing you are in some trouble.’’
Zack Britton recalled 2014 with the Orioles, when they clinched a playoff spot with two weeks remaining and admitted he began scouting Tigers hitters.
“I still finished strong, but I found during those outings, the last couple of outings I was going through the motions,’’ said Britton, who won’t take the same approach this year. “Now, I am not going to look ahead. I am going to have three or four days to prep on them. I have faced them a lot in my career. I am going to look back 2014 and stay in the moment.’’
That moment will pass and the chance of the Yankees hosting the Twins in Game 1 of the ALDS next Friday in The Bronx will very likely be a reality.