Exactly a week ago in this space, VSiN discussed the importance of moving the chains and finding the end zone for NFL offenses in general … and the New York Giants in particular.
This past Sunday, new starting quarterback Daniel Jones was able to significantly increase the G-Men’s offensive efficiency while leading them to a 32-31 upset win at Tampa Bay as four-point underdogs.
- The Giants converted 46 percent of their third-down tries (6-of-13), up from 16 percent at Dallas (2-of-11) and 25 percent versus Buffalo (3-of-12) with Eli Manning. The Giants also converted a fourth-down try when Jones rushed for what proved to be the game-winning touchdown on fourth-and-5 with 1:16 left.
- The Giants finished off four touchdown drives of 75 yards or more in one game, which had been their full-season output through the prior two.
It wasn’t perfect. The Giants had five three-and-outs that led to punts. And they fumbled the ball away twice. Trouble could loom now that the element of surprise is gone and opposing defenses have some game film of Jones to study.
Still, fans — and anyone who bet “Over 6” on this past summer’s regular-season win total propositions — can be heartened by immediate improvement at moving the chains and finishing drives. The future is brighter than it had been. The soft defense of the Washington Redskins is coming to town this Sunday on short rest. And, down the road, currently winless Arizona, Miami and the Jets are on the remaining schedule.
Speaking of the Jets, third-down performance is also one of the glaring indicators explaining the collapse of their offense since Sam Darnold was sidelined by mononucleosis. The Jets were an acceptable 7-for-17 (41 percent) with Darnold in a close loss to the Bills (on disappointing yardage volume). Without Darnold, the Jets were a pathetic 2-for-14 in a home loss to the Browns, and a “perfect” 0-for-12 at New England.
Through three weeks, the top third-down offenses in the NFL are: Cowboys (58 percent), Eagles (56), Chiefs (54), Colts (54), Ravens (50) and Texans (50). Those six teams are a combined 11-6-1 against the spread for a 65-percent cover rate.
No statistic by itself tells the full story for any NFL team. But VSiN strongly encourages handicappers and bettors to study third-down conversion rates on both offense and defense, as well as red-zone performance.
There’s a lot of raw talent spread across the league. Offenses with “efficiency” skill-sets will make the most of their yardage. Defenses that can consistently disrupt opposing offenses will give their teams a chance to win most weeks. Most importantly for gamblers, bettors can catch the market napping when teams are positioned to take a dramatic step forward or backward on either side of the ball.
Let’s see if Daniel Jones’ first step forward will lead to smart bets in upcoming action.