Wednesday provided a night of zeroes. That is not meant to invoke the absence of heroes, rather literally multiple storylines tied to “00s.”
Since we have 10 fingers we tend to fixate on round numbers — which is why it sounds and feels much better that Pete Alonso reached 50 homers, rather than stopped at 49, though it should not change the perception of his rookie season an iota.
Yet, those historic zeroes offer insights into the modern game:
100 — The Astros became the sixth team to reach the century mark in wins three straight years. None of the previous five had ever done so in the same decade in which they also lost 100 three straight years, as Houston did from 2011-13.
Congratulate the Astros for gaming the system to maximize being bad. They won their first title in 2017 and will be favorites this postseason. But mirroring what the Astros and Cubs did to go from atrocious to parades has not been good for the sport.
Because tanking has helped lead to historic disparity, though good, old-fashioned incompetence also is to blame — I have my eyes on you, Pirates and White Sox.
In the no previous decade had there been three seasons in which three teams won 100 games. This will mark the third straight year it has happened — and if Atlanta reaches triple digits, the first time ever that four teams won 100 in the same year. That would mean 10 100-win teams from 2017-19. From 2004-16, eight teams total won 100 games.
Four teams were on pace to lose 100, which would match the record (2002). That would be seven 100-loss clubs in the past two years, compared to six from 2011-17.
Drop the win/loss level to 95. Eight teams were on pace to win 95 through Friday, six in the AL. Since expansion to 30 teams in 1998, there were eight 95-win teams in one season (1999) and neither league has ever had six. Five teams were on pace for 95 losses (and more were still possible). Eight teams lost 95 last year, the most in the 30-team era.
Disparity is providing these extremes — and determining playoff spots. The Indians were 18-1 against the Tigers — the most wins against an opponent in the division era (since 1969). One of every five Cleveland victories this year was against Detroit. The Yankees were 17-2 vs. the Orioles, the Astros 16-1 vs. the Mariners and the Braves 15-4 vs. the Marlins. The Nationals were 14-3 vs. the Marlins through Friday.
Good teams have built records by clobbering bad teams throughout baseball history. But this many teams at extremes is a problem MLB must solve.
300 — Gerrit Cole became the 18th pitcher to reach that strikeout level in a season, and only Randy Johnson (197²/₃ innings in 2001) got there quicker than Cole (198¹/₃ innings). This is not a diatribe about the frequency of whiffs, though strikeouts per game are going to be a record for a 14th straight year.
This is about free agency, which has not been as kind to players the past few years, with many positions/age groups finding less compensation. But I think elite starters are going to get paid. Because as a class those contracts have generally worked out well — think Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester. Heck, Masahiro Tanaka is generally a success story.
There has been a sport-wide de-emphasis of starters. Which has only made the best ones — who can save the bullpen for the rest of the rotation — more valuable.
Cole just turned 29. He is at the peak of his powers. He almost certainly will exceed the most ever given a pitcher ($217 million for David Price) and the most per year on average ($34.42 million for Greinke).
.300 — The story is not as good for positional free agents at the top of the payscale. Albert Pujols still has two years remaining on his 10-year, $240 million pact and on Wednesday he briefly fell below a lifetime .300 average for the first time since the fourth game of his career. Going into Saturday, he was at .2999. That rounds up to .300, but for historic purposes is not .300. He certainly will finish his career below .300, since he hit .328 in his first 11 years as a Cardinal and .259 in eight seasons with the Angels.
This also will be Pujols’ fourth straight year with a Wins Above Replacement at 1.3 or considerably lower (2.0 is an average major leaguer). Miguel Cabrera — with four seasons left on his eight-year, $248 million extension — has fallen further than Pujols. Five active contracts signed in free agency or as extensions are for larger than Pujols/Cabrera. One belongs to Giancarlo Stanton, whose Yankees won the AL East in spite of him. The other four were signed in a bunch last offseason by Mike Trout (Angels), Bryce Harper (Phillies), Manny Machado (Padres) and Nolan Arenado (Rockies). None of their teams are making the playoffs.
When it comes to position players, will more teams spread the wealth on lots of quality players rather than invest heavily in one?
2,000 — Giants manager Bruce Bochy became the 11th manager to reach that win total. The 10 in front of him are in the Hall of Fame, and Bochy — with three World Series victories — almost certainly will join them.
Cleveland’s Terry Francona, with 1,664 wins, may get to 2,000. But then? The next among active managers are the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle (1,265) and Cubs’ Joe Maddon (1,250), both of whom are more than less likely to lose their jobs after this season.
And the trend in the job now is young, inexpensive and collaborative with front offices, almost all of which have strong analytical backbones. Maddon, Dusty Baker (1,863 wins), Joe Girardi (988), Buck Showalter (1,551) and Mike Scioscia (1,650) are likely available this offseason and desirous of managing. But how little would they accept to manage again, and — even if they sank financially low — would any organization take on an established guy who the front office could see as a threat to authority and protocol?
Think of it this way: Not too long ago, the manager was the dominant figure in an organization. Vulnerable in their job, but powerful while they occupied the seat. This offseason, around one-quarter of teams will change their skipper, with little expectation that historically successful managers will be frontrunners for any opening.
Yet only one head of baseball operations is likely to lose his job, and that already has happened with — of all things — Boston’s Dave Dombrowski being canned 10 months after winning a World Series.
Thus, managers have kept the vulnerability and lost the power, which belongs to those who hire them, have the ear of ownership and spin their narrative to explain failure.