Betting markets do a great job shedding light on how college football teams “really” compare in the national championship chase. Saturday night’s intersectional showcase featuring No. 7 Notre Dame at No. 3 Georgia (8 p.m., CBS) is already an important prism for the 2019 season.
Georgia just missed the College Football Playoff last season, failing to protect a 28-21 fourth-quarter lead over Alabama in the SEC title game. The Bulldogs are a strong contender to make it this year. Through the course of the regular season, we will learn how “the market” rates Georgia versus Notre Dame, No. 8 Auburn, No. 9 Florida, and probably against either No. 2 Alabama or No. 4 LSU in the SEC title game.
Notre Dame did reach the Final Four, before being badly outclassed by eventual champ Clemson 30-3 in a game in which it was outgained 538-248. The Fighting Irish will play No. 11 Michigan in October, which will create a helpful link to No. 6 Ohio State and the rest of the Big Ten. They also play USC and Stanford from the two Pac-12 divisions, which will help if somebody from that league runs the table.
Connectivity is key. Neither Notre Dame nor Georgia has a direct link to the Big 12, where No. 5 Oklahoma resides. But, links between Georgia and LSU will connect to the LSU-Texas game from two Saturdays ago … and Texas will soon face Oklahoma on a neutral field.
After that, observers will be able to make accurate estimates of point differences between the powers as perceived by the most important market influences.
For now, we know that both Georgia and LSU are seen as well clear of the Notre Dame-Texas class of competition.
- Sharps bet Georgia up to more than a two-touchdown favorite over Notre Dame this week. That would suggest the Bulldogs would be about 11 points better on a neutral field.
- Sharps bet LSU up to -6¹/₂ points at Austin, in a game the Tigers ultimately won by seven. Two pieces of evidence that LSU is seen as about 9-10 points better than Texas on a neutral field.
Before the recent growth of sports betting coverage in mainstream media, you often would hear informed fans say “let oddsmakers decide who the best teams are.” That would take potential politics from major conferences out of the selection committee mix. It would discourage undefeated pretenders with soft schedules from getting nods over one-loss juggernauts (who just happened to lose to another juggernaut). VSiN is happy that market evaluations are looming larger over media and public consciousness in the college football championship chase.
No. 1 Clemson is already a virtual lock for the Final Four after coasting through potential potholes Texas A&M and Syracuse. The Tigers will be double-digit favorites in every remaining game. Loaded Alabama is power-rated to get there. You can at least pencil in the Crimson Tide with reasonably dark lead.
Georgia will start making its case Saturday night. Sharps are already believers, based on this week’s betting.