The Mariners enter Friday’s contest with the White Sox the second-best team in MLB for going Over the total this season, and have one of the top Over pitchers going on Friday in Seattle.
Yusei Kikuchi has seen 19 of his 29 of his starts go Over, along with one push, as he has given up at least three runs (earned or unearned) in 20 of the 29. He also is giving up two home runs per nine innings with just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings.
To aid in trying to get this total to go Over, White Sox pitcher Dylan Covey has a -1.0 WAR and is giving up two home runs per nine innings, but is actually worse overall. As a starter, his ERA is 8.14 across his 11 starts and he is issuing just under 4.5 walks per nine innings.
Both teams back up their struggling starters with bullpens that have ERAs above 4.50 since the All-Star break and silently, the White Sox are in the top eight in runs per game at the plate in the last 14 days despite being in the bottom five in runs per game in that span.
A total that is opening below 10 in 2019 presents a lot of value given the way both these starting pitchers have performed, coupled with a pair of less-than-stellar bullpens.
The play: White Sox-Mariners, Over 9¹/₂ runs.