Handicappers need to be leery about overreacting to what we saw in the college football season openers (this will also apply to NFL Week 1), but I can’t help it in looking to fade Nebraska on Saturday with Colorado as a 4-point home underdog.
A lot of people were projecting Nebraska to be a Big Ten title contender this year, but I wasn’t too impressed with the Cornhuskers’ 35-21 win over South Alabama last Saturday. They were supposed to win in a rout as 36-point home favorites, but they didn’t even score that many points themselves. In fact, Nebraska had only 276 yards of total offense and was outscored by its own defense and special teams — with two defensive scores and a punt return for another TD. The defense allowed 314 yards and 21 points to a South Alabama team that was expected to be in the Sun Belt cellar.
Meanwhile, Colorado beat Colorado State 52-31 as 12.5-point favorites while racking up 243 rushing yards plus another 232 through the air behind quarterback Steven Montez, who had two touchdown passes. The Buffaloes’ defense did allow 505 yards, but all that tells me that this should be a shootout (bonus play on the Over 65?). But this is more of a bet against a Nebraska team that is still being given too much respect by oddsmakers and bettors.
The play: Colorado +4.