Post columnist Steve Serby breaks down each team and every division in the NFC as part of our 2019 NFL preview:
1. New Orleans Saints
Coach: Sean Payton
2018 record: 13-3
O/U wins: 10¹/₂
Key additions: TE Jared Cook, C Nick Easton, DT Malcom Brown, RB Latavius Murray, C Erik McCoy, LB Kiko Alonso
Key losses: RB Mark Ingram, C Max Unger, S Kurt Coleman, OT Jermon Bushrod
First-and-goal: Drew Brees turned 40 at the end of a season in which he posted a career-high completion percentage (.744). There isn’t a better WR/RB duo than Michael Thomas/Alvin Kamara (a combined 206 receptions). TE Jared Cook could threaten his career-high 68 receptions set last season. Guard Andrus Peat and RT Ryan Ramczyk, a pair of first-round draft picks passed over by former Giants GM Jerry Reese, return one of the league’s top three offensive lines. Underrated DE Cam Jordan has recorded 25 sacks over the last two seasons. Will Lutz ($20.25 million extension) nailed 28 of 30 FGs and was rewarded as the highest-paid kicker in NFL history. Punter Thomas Morstead owns a 46.9-yard career average. Payton is an elite play-caller, and Jerry Jones can’t stop fantasizing about him coaching the Cowboys. Taysom Hill torments defensive coordinators when he steps in for Brees.
Fourth-and-long: NT Sheldon Rankins missed training camp recovering from a ruptured Achilles, though he has been activated, and David Onyemata has a Week 1 suspension, so Malcolm Brown and Mario Edwards Jr. will hold defensive coordinator Dennis Allen’s fort. DE Marcus Davenport needs to improve on 4.5 sacks. WRs Tre’Quan Smith and/or Keith Kirkwood need to step up opposite Thomas. Will there be a Nickell Robey-Coleman hangover?
Serby Says: 10-6. Paging Al Riveron … paging Al Riveron.
2. Atlanta Falcons
Coach: Dan Quinn
2018 record: 7-9
O/U wins: 8 ¹/₂
Key additions: G James Carpenter, G Chris Lindstrom, T Kaleb McGary
Key losses: CB Robert Alford, RB Tevin Coleman, EDGE Bruce Irvin, CB Justin Bethel
First-and-goal: Matt Ryan is an elite QB who has thrown for more than 4,000 yards for eight straight seasons. Julio Jones, who led the league with 1,677 receiving yards, will be paid similarly to Michael Thomas ($96.25 million over five years). Second-year WR Calvin Ridley (64 catches, 10 TDs) is a nice No. 2. RB Devonta Freeman, back from his groin injury, should notch his third 1,000-yard rushing season. TE Austin Hooper (71 catches) is no slouch. The O-line has been upgraded with rookies G Chris Lindstrom and RT Kaleb McGary. The fast defense is anchored by LBs Deion Jones and De’Vondre Campbell, who are backed by enforcer safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen. DT Grady Jarrett (six sacks, three forced fumbles) earned his $68 million extension. DE Takk McKinley (13 sacks in two seasons) is a breakout candidate. Quinn overhauled his coaching staff and takes over as defensive play-caller.
Fourth-and-long: Vic Beasley (10 sacks in last two years) is in his contract year, so maybe he can be Vic Beastly again. Ito Smith replaces Tevin Coleman behind Freeman. PK Matt Bryant returns at age 44.
Serby Says: 9-7. If Ryan has another MVP season, they’ll win the division.
3. Carolina Panthers
Coach: Ron Rivera
2018 record: 7-9
O/U wins: 8
Key additions: C Matt Paradis, EDGE Bruce Irvin, EDGE Brian Burns, LT Greg Little, QB Will Grier
Key losses: C Ryan Kalil, WR Devin Funchess, LB Thomas Davis
First-and-goal: A healthy, more accurate Cam Newton with a more efficient throwing motion. If you passed on RB Christian McCaffrey (107 receptions) in your fantasy draft, you’re stupid. Watch out for second-year WRs D.J. Moore (55-788-2) and explosive Curtis Samuel. TE Greg Olson, back from his foot issue, has played just 16 games over last two seasons but he isn’t ready to be in the booth and critiqued by M&M Boys Mushnick and Marchand just yet. Center Matt Paradis replaces Ryan Kalil. RG Trai Turner is a four-time Pro Bowler.
First-round edge rusher Brian Burns and Bruce Irvin juice the 27th-ranked pass rush in the new 3-4 as Kawann Short moves to defensive end opposite Gerald McCoy and Mario Addison (20 sacks over last two years). ILB Luke Kuechly shoots for his eighth straight 100-plus tackle season. CB Donte Jackson is fast while CB James Bradberry is physical. S Eric Reid will lay the wood and lobby for Colin Kaepernick.
Fourth-and-long: What if Newton’s shoulder betrays him? What if Daryl Williams or rookie Greg Little can’t protect his blindside? Free safety and nickelback are unsettled. Leadership of franchise icon ILB Thomas Davis will be missed. PK Graham Gano’s leg woes (IR) opened the door for rookie Joey Slye.
Serby Says: 8-8. Can Norv Turner fix Newton?
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Coach: Bruce Arians
2018 record: 5-11
O/U wins: 6¹/₂
Key additions: OLB Shaquil Barrett, LB Deone Bucannon, WR Breshad Perriman, LB Devin White, S Mike Edwards, PK Matt Gay
Key losses: WR DeSean Jackson, WR Adam Humphries, LB Kwon Alexander, EDGE Vinny Curry
First-and-goal: Arians will get the best out of QB Jameis Winston. WR Mike Evans (40 TDs in 77 games) earned his $82.5 million contract. WR Chris Godwin is a breakout candidate. TE O.J. Howard will catch more than 34 balls this season. First-round ILB Devin White replaces Kwon Alexander. Ndamukong Suh replaces draft-mate Gerald McCoy. Defensive coordinator Todd Bowles is a better vice president than president.
Fourth-and-long: Jason Pierre-Paul (fractured neck) might be back in October. Bucs haven’t made playoffs since 2007. RBs Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones fashioned the 29th-ranked rushing attack in 2018. Adam Humphries’ 76 receptions will have to be accounted for. This secondary won’t scare Drew Brees, Matt Ryan or Cam Newton. CB Vernon Hargreaves has one career INT — no wonder former Giants GM Jerry Reese preferred Eli Apple.
Serby Says: 6-10. Boy, this defense could use Warren Sapp, Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber.