As we approach the first full week of college football action, it’s time to review key mistakes that squares make in this sport:
- Betting too many games: Recreational bettors typically assume they’re much smarter than they really are. That causes them to dig holes on Thursdays and Fridays losing games they shouldn’t have bet, then get buried on huge Saturday schedules.
By game days, most point spreads are where they should be. Oddsmakers know the teams. Sharps “correct” soft openers with their money (the name “sharps” comes from their role in “sharpening” the line). Maybe your insights give you a real edge in a couple of spots. They don’t give you an edge in a dozen spots.
- Betting on offense rather than defense: It’s easy to visualize blowouts when investing in high-scoring teams. Highlight reels of past victories are running in your head. Those same highlight reels are running in everyone else’s heads too, which overinflates the line for elite offenses.
Sharps make a lot of money off “defensive dogs” because that’s where the line value is. Stop watching highlight shows. Spend more time evaluating team defensive stats (particularly yards-allowed-per-play, third-down denials, sacks and takeaways).
- Overrating home-field advantage: Because many blowouts do happen at home, recreational bettors tend to overvalue home-field advantage. They also overvalue the impact of loud crowds. Yes, sometimes a boisterous home crowd does matter. Studies show that travel distance, altitude and climate adjustments are bigger hindrances to road performance.
It’s easier for networks to show maniacal fans mugging for the camera than it is to show jet (or bus) lag. If the main reason you’re making a pick is because you’re imagining that home field is going to be worth a touchdown or more in a matchup, you should pass the game … or at least lower your bet.
- Betting parlays: The combined danger of overconfidence, overrating offense, and overvaluing home-field advantage tricks squares into believing they should parlay their picks for even bigger payoffs. Parlays don’t pay off at true odds anyway. They’re particularly dangerous to bettors prone to laying points they shouldn’t be laying.
Let’s say you have four picks you love. Along with betting those four against the spread, you match them up in all the possible two-team parlays (six possible pairings) and one big four-teamer to go for the motherlode.
If your original four picks go 2-2 … that would have been a slight loss with vigorish on straight bets. But, your six two-teamers would go 1-5 (only winning the pairing with the two victors) and the four-teamer goes down in flames. You turned 2-2 into 3-8.
Yes, you’ll occasionally have a big day. Not often enough for make up for the losses on what should have been 50/50 splits.
- Betting teasers: Don’t bet teasers in college football! Scoring is way too volatile. Moving the line six, seven or 10 points in your favor won’t buy as much as you’re thinking … particularly in games with totals in the 60s, 70s or 80s.