LOS ANGELES — Barring what would be an unforgiveable collapse that would cause a drastic upheaval from top to bottom in the Yankees’ organization, the AL East leaders will avoid the AL wild-card game and participate in the best-of-five ALDS.
With an eight-game lead over the second-place Rays in the AL East entering Friday night’s game at Dodger Stadium, the Yankees will likely be able to set up their ALDS rotation whichever way they want.
And that raises the question that hovers above what has been a wonderful season, despite the Yankees losing big names to the injured list for extended stints.
Who will be Aaron Boone’s Game 1 starter?
Of course that decision doesn’t have to be made in the waning days of August. And the yet-to-be-determined opponent will factor into the pick.
Yet, among the Yankees’ five current starters — and throw in the possible use of a reliever as a starter for an ALDS game — not one is pitching like a Game 1 starter. Former staff ace Luis Severino is expected back from the injured list after recovering from right rotator cuff and lat problems, but he hasn’t faced big league hitters since the Red Sox punished him (six runs in three innings) in Game 3 of last year’s ALDS. Furthermore, Severino has appeared in six postseason games in his career and is 1-2 with a bloated 6.26 ERA.
“Except for [Domingo] German, they all look like back-end starters right now,’’ a scout who has been following the Yankees said Friday afternoon. “German is the best one, but basically it is command issues with the other guys.’’
Statistics are like Photoshopping: You can do anything you want with them, yet rarely do they lie. And the numbers in the past seven games by Yankees starters (including opener Chad Green) are ugly and should be worrisome for a team with designs on winning the World Series for the first time since 2009.Beginning with Green getting blistered (five runs in one-third of an inning) by the Indians on Aug. 15, the arms that started the previous seven games were a combined 2-5 with an 8.44 ERA. In 32 innings, they gave up 38 hits, nine of which were homers.
During the four-game losing streak the Yankees brought to Chavez Ravine on Friday, CC Sabathia, German, J.A. Happ and Masahiro Tanaka were 0-4 with an obese 9.33 ERA and allowed 24 hits in 18 ¹/₃ innings.
“I would say from what I have seen it would be [James] Paxton,’’ the scout said. “I couldn’t pitch German in Game 1 unless it was in New York.’’
With the best record (83-46) in the American League and sitting two games behind the Dodgers for the overall MLB lead before Friday night’s meeting, the Yankees are a heavy favorite to have home-field advantage in the best-of-five ALDS that would start at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees are likely to alter German’s workload in September with an eye toward having the 16-game winner be ready for postseason action, so he could be in play for Game 1.
Until giving up five runs (three in the first inning) to the Athletics on Thursday night in Oakland, Tanaka was looking like a strong contender to pitch the Yankees’ first postseason game.
Facing the Blue Jays and Indians and using an altered grip on his signature split-fingered fastball, Tanaka went 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and held hitters to a .143 batting average in the previous two starts.
Those numbers took a hit Thursday when Tanaka didn’t separate himself from the other candidates. Paxton got his chance Friday night, Sabathia goes Saturday and German on Sunday with the idea of turning the recent downtrend from the starters around.
Who starts Game 1?
No answer needed now, but that doesn’t mean the question doesn’t hover above the Yankees journey to their first AL East title since 2012.