LAS VEGAS — Here are five issues on the minds of college football bettors as the opening games come into closer focus:
There are an inordinate number of double-digit spread games the opening week. Should bettors shy away from those games?
In a word, no. Value can still be found in big-spread games. The following Aug. 29-Sept. 2 big spread games merit attention.
Tulsa at Michigan State (Aug. 30) — The Spartans are only 6-11 laying double-digit prices the past four years. They’ve also failed to cover their last seven laying 20 points or more.
Toledo at Kentucky (Aug. 31) — It’s been dangerous to back the Cats laying any points at home, where they’ve dropped 10 straight as chalk, whatever the price!
Duke versus Alabama (Aug. 31 at Atlanta) — The Tide has covered in 10 of its last 11 openers for Nick Saban, but Duke is 25-12-1 as a ’dog for David Cutcliffe since 2014.
Georgia Southern at LSU (Aug. 31) — Note that LSU has dropped its last six versus the line at Baton Rouge versus non-SEC foes.
Louisiana Tech at Texas (Aug. 31) — The Bulldogs are 16-6-1 versus the spread as an underdog for Skip Holtz since 2014.
Fresno State at USC (Aug. 31) — The ’Dawgs are 12-1-2 vs. the spread away from home since Jeff Tedford arrived in 2017. Meanwhile, the Trojans are just 3-10 in their last 13 versus the line outside of the Pac-12.
Which coaches are on the hottest seats entering 2019, and how might that relate to point-spread performance?
Clay Helton, USC — The good news for beleaguered Helton? He wasn’t fingered in the recent Lori Loughlin scandal at the school. The bad news? No mulligan from the demanding Trojan fan and alumni base that was beating the war drums loudly last fall as the Trojans sunk to 5-7 and their first losing season since Paul Hackett recorded the same mark in 2000.
Chris Ash, Rutgers — Rutgers isn’t Ohio State, from where Ash arrived in 2016, but even the Scarlet Knights have standards. And regressing to 1-11 in 2018 after making mild progress in 2017 (to 4-8) is not the sort of trajectory that keeps a coach employed for very long. Ash has one more season to forge a turnaround in New Brunswick.
Willie Taggart, Florida State — It would have cost the ’Noles in the neighborhood of $21 million to buy out Taggart after his massively disappointing debut season, which ended FSU’s nation’s-longest bowl streak that began in 1982. But there were plenty of boosters who wanted to see the buyout triggered after the ’Noles regressed to the middle of the ACC pack, hard to digest for a team that was competing for (and winning) national titles for Jimbo Fisher just a few years ago.
Randy Edsall, UConn — Safe to say this back-to-the-future scenario has not worked as envisioned with UConn, as “Edsall 2.0” has not fared too well for the Huskies. One of the worst defenses in memory sabotaged a 2018 campaign that would have been winless if not for a 56-49 victory over FCS Rhode Island. And now UConn football is in limbo with the basketball move to the Big East next year.
Others on the hot seat — Kalani Sitake, BYU; Lovie Smith, Illinois; Mike Bobo, Colorado State; Bob Davie, New Mexico; Tony Sanchez, UNLV.
Which new coaches might make the greatest impact versus the point spread?
Scott Satterfield, Louisville — The Cards could hardly be worse than their 1-11 spread mark last fall. Figure that to improve, maybe significantly, for new coach Satterfield, who turned App State into a consistent winner, standing 13-3-1 his last 17 on the board for the Mounties. We’ll find out soon if Satterfield has made an impact, as the the ‘Ville will be a near three-touchdown ’dog in its Labor Day night opener versus Notre Dame.
Matt Wells, Texas Tech — The Red Raiders usually ended up around .500 for Kliff Kingsbury. That would be a downgrade for new coach Wells, whose Utah State team went 9-3-1 versus the line last season. The Red Raiders will be heavy favorites in their first two at Lubbock versus Montana State and UTEP.
Jake Spavital, Texas State — The Bobcats almost disappeared from radar while on the watch of Everett Withers. Enter Spavital, a young offensive wiz and devotee of the spread, which could put a lot more bite into the Bobcat offense. TSU is getting nearly five touchdowns in its opener at Texas A&M.
Which teams are potentially underrated entering the season?
Air Force — Troy Calhoun has surprised before, might have an overdue playmaker at quarterback (Donald Hammond III), and the Force has more returning starters than usual (seven) on a defense that ranked as one of the nation’s leaders versus the rush a year ago.
Duke — While many wonder how the Blue Devils will fare after QB Daniel Jones was taken in the first round of the NFL draft, remember that successor Quentin Harris is a fifth-year senior marinated in the Cutcliffe offense and who has fared well in past opportunities (including a 2-0 record last season). Cutcliffe’s teams are rarely caught short at quarterback and continue to excel as an underdog.
Others — Florida International, Hawaii, Houston, Iowa State, Louisiana Tech, Ole Miss, Ohio, Texas State, UAB, Wake Forest, Wyoming.
Which teams are potentially overrated entering the season?
Clemson and Alabama — This is relative and in regard to the point spreads only, but both the Tigers and Crimson Tide have been so-so as heavy chalk in recent years, and will be forced to lay some balloon-like numbers this fall.
Oregon — While the hype for QB Justin Herbert might be justified, remember the Ducks were only 5-4 in a very watered-down Pac-12 last season, and were helped by a marshmallow-soft non-conference slate with all games played at friendly Autzen Stadium.
Penn State — The post-spring transfer of QB Tommy Stevens to Mississippi State was a blow for coach James Franklin, who already was proceeding minus decorated QB Trace McSorley.
Others — Arizona, Auburn, Florida State, Michigan, Nebraska, Southern Cal, TCU, South Florida, Virginia Tech.