One of the toughest challenges for baseball handicappers in coming weeks will be properly evaluating the Cleveland Indians (who play host to the Los Angeles Angels on FS1 at 7:10 p.m. Saturday).
Among the quandaries:
Cleveland is in the thick of the American League Central and wild-card races, but has a losing record versus quality teams. The Indians crush losers, but can’t be counted on to get wins versus contenders. Are futures prices properly reflecting that potential playoff pitfall?
Cleveland strikes casual observers as a “hot” team. But that’s because it had two long stretches of games against dregs. The Indians just went 12-2 against Detroit, Kansas City, Toronto and Kansas City again. Before the All-Star break, Cleveland closed 16-5 against Detroit, Texas, Detroit again, Kansas City, Baltimore, Kansas City (again!), and Cincinnati. Were the Indians in great form, or just better than the awful opposition they were facing?
Cleveland just traded away Trevor Bauer, a solid starting pitcher. He left the Tribe with a 3.79 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP while lasting 6 ¹/₂ innings per start. That’s a huge kicker because many starters are averaging less than six. His xFIP (a fielding-independent measure designed to run along the same scale as ERA) was a bit higher at 4.28, but that’s still top 40 among rotation starters in the majors.
Cleveland just acquired Yasiel Puig, who has been very disappointing on offense this season. Yes, he has 22 home runs, but that’s about all he does. He has only 15 doubles and one triple. His slash line showing a .252 batting average/.302 on-base percentage/.475 slugging percentage isn’t high impact. And, those numbers are helped by having played home games at Great American Ballpark. It’s a hitters’ park that has helped him more than others. Puig’s slash stats away from Cincinnati are .230/.276/.470 (.276 is putrid for OBP).
So, the Indians made their starting rotation worse, stuck a possible anvil in the heart of the batting order and will be dealing with a toughening schedule that will include 11 games versus the Twins, Red Sox and Yankees, beginning Thursday.
Betting markets have shown respect to the recent surge in victories. William Hill has Cleveland 8/1 to win the American League pennant (risk $100 to win $800, or anything in that ratio). The Indians are 16/1 to win the World Series.
For now, Cleveland appears to be a poor investment on the futures board. You can probably wait until the playoffs arrive and earn at least 8/1 and 16/1 on rolling parlays through a likely underdog sequence versus the likes of the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers. If the Indians don’t win the Central, there will be a wild-card game, too.
In terms of immediate game-by-game betting, litmus tests are imminent that should set the tone for the stretch run. Can the rotation avoid cracks without Bauer? Will Puig keep swinging impressively while missing the ball? See if you can answer those questions before oddsmakers do.