Eduardo Rodriguez has a 13-4 record for the Red Sox, who have gone 17-5 in his starts this season (with the total also going Over in 17 of the 22 games). He is getting an average of 7.9 runs of support per start and has pitched his best recently, posting a 2.03 ERA with opponents hitting .189 off of him in five starts in July.
Lefty James Paxton, who opposes him, is allowing 1.7 home runs per nine innings, and the Yankees have lost all five of his starts in July. In four of those, the Yankees provided him with four runs of support or fewer. For the year, the Yankees are 9-9 in his starts and scoring nearly 5.8 runs per game. Paxton is allowing just under 3.85 home runs per nine innings in July, posting a 5.68 ERA with opponents hitting .336.
Boston is 32-22 on the road this season, and the Yankees actually score less than a full run per game fewer at home than on the road. This looks to be a good spot for the Sox to make a statement in the opener of a crucial series.
The play: Red Sox, +110.