This trade deadline was Knicks’ free agency — a lot of noise, tons of anticipation and a payoff of Julius Randle and Bobby Portis.
Yeah, Zack Greinke was traded, but Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Mike Minor, Robbie Ray, Felipe Vazquez, Kirby Yates, Will Smith and Ken Giles weren’t. There were rumors of a great deadline. But Fyre Festival attendees got a better payoff than baseball fans anticipating July 31 blockbusters — at least baseball fans outside of Houston, which landed Greinke.
What happened?
Ownership matters
The Wilpons do not spend commensurate to their market size. But they also don’t ever want to rebuild. They see any glimmer of hope as a chance to, at minimum, keep attention on the Mets and fans in the seats over the final two months. So they added Marcus Stroman and retained Syndergaard and Wheeler.
The Reds, with a worse record than the Mets, obtained Trevor Bauer because, like the Wilpons, owner Bob Castellini hates surrender. His attendance is up nearly 2,500 per game and he wants to keep his fans.
The Giants, generally perceived to have a lower playoff chance than the Mets, retained the iconic Bumgarner, Smith and Tony Watson. The Giants have had the third-largest average decrease in attendance and they want to reverse that. They want to honor manager Bruce Bochy on the way out. And the organizational ethos has been to go for it when there is a chance to go for it.
Analytics matter
If MLB were ever trying to prove to the union that it does not collude in free agency, they might offer up this trade deadline as proof. When you have a bunch of like-minded front offices, they value players similarly, which leads to comparable bids on free agents. It also leads to a group-think on value that makes it hard for teams to line up in trades, especially since there is such an outsized value on prospects.
In the NBA, the Clippers and the Lakers were willing to give up gobs of future assets to secure Kawhi Leonard/Paul George and Anthony Davis. MLB teams nearly universally treat their prospect lists like the royal family — to be protected at all times — even when stars could be had. The Brodie Van Wagenen Mets and Red Sox are perhaps the only teams zagging against that grain.Good luck making trades when in most cases the buyers do not want to relinquish players who might be good in 2022.
Contention matters
The inability of teams to break away in the NL East, the NL Central and the NL wild card, in particular, provided alternatives to selling. The Mets (Syndergaard, Wheeler), Giants (Bumgarner) and Diamondbacks (Robbie Ray) would not be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Yet, they were close enough that if they were not going to get exactly what they wanted, then they at least had the fall-back to try to get into the tournament rather than just accept an inferior deal.
Control years matter
Stroman was traded, though he could not be free until after 2020, because the Blue Jays recognized he was thriving, healthy and the market was craving quality starters — the value would never be higher. The Indians dealt Bauer (also free after 2020) because they were probably tired of his act and didn’t want to be in the no-alternative-but-move-him arena this offseason when every suitor would know they couldn’t shoehorn his $20 million-ish 2020 salary into their payroll.
But because Minor and Ray could not be free agents until after 2020 and Syndergaard 2021, their teams set exorbitant prices and knew they could always market them again this offseason or next July trade deadline. Bumgarner, Smith and Wheeler could be made the qualifying offer, and the Giants and Mets, respectively, could get draft pick compensation or have those players accept the offer and be under contract for next season at around $18 million.
Pens matter
The Braves (Chris Martin, Shane Greene, Mark Melancon) and Nationals (Roenis Elias, Hunter Strickland, Daniel Hudson) each added three relievers. San Francisco retained Smith and Watson but dealt Melancon, Sam Dyson (Twins) and Drew Pomeranz and Ray Black (Brewers).But the team expected to land the biggest reliever, the Dodgers, added only lefty Adam Kolarek from the Rays despite all their efforts on, particularly the Pirates’ Vazquez. Los Angeles recognizes its concern area on an otherwise dynamic roster is late-game assistance for or insurance against declining closer Kenley Jansen.
The Dodgers, under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, have shown discipline not to (in their evaluations) grossly overpay even as they try to end a championship drought extending to 1988. And the expectation in the majors this July was that Los Angeles would extend substantially to land a Vaquez or Smith or Yates or maybe even Edwin Diaz.
But the Dodgers stuck to their process — and added just mainly a lefty specialist. That fit the motif of the Beto O’Rourke of trade deadlines — a lot of fanfare and attention, for what?