No one likes to be disappointed, especially my wife – though she’s gotten used to it. Recently, she got a message of an incoming package she wasn’t expecting. There were no details of what the package was, just that it was coming.
She got overly excited. What could it be? Why am I so special? Oh, the anticipation. Then it arrived. And it was a replacement rack for a convection oven. A rack that already had been replaced.
She hadn’t been that disappointed since … well, let’s just say we don’t talk about that time.
Fantasy owners are familiar with this type of misfortune. It happens every time they come to the realization they have a draft-day bust on their roster. There is one easy way to avoid this letdown: Don’t draft those guys.
Yeah, yeah. We, know. Easier said than done. But we’re going to give a shot, because, like John F. Kennedy once said, not because it is easy, but because it is hard.
When we talk about busts, we’re not talking about late-round fliers that cost you virtually nothing in draft capital. Those guys bomb all the time. We’re talking about players you take early, with plans to start every week, who fall far short of delivering on those expectations.
The Patriots forever have frustrated fantasy owners with their lack of dedication to a feature running back. That seemed like it was beginning to change last season with the first-round selection of Sony Michel. The rookie quickly became a focal point. He had his breakout game in Week 4 and averaged 105 yards per game and scored four total TDs in Weeks 4-6 before leaving early with a knee injury in Week 7.
He returned in Week 10 and through the rest of the season averaged just 73 yards per game and scored just two total TDs. He had suffered a knee injury in college as well. He had another minor procedure in the offseason. Reports are all is going well, but the Patriots did draft another RB, Damien Harris in the third round. Passing-game specialist James White isn’t going anywhere, and Rex Burkhead is healthy after missing the first 12 weeks last season with a neck injury.
So it appears the Patriots’ backfield could devolve in a muddled mess once again. Though White’s role is secure, and worthy of a draft pick at his average draft position in the 50s, we’re not prepared to use a pick in the late-30s or early 40s on Michel. Too many questions, too many options, too deep a history of disappointment from RBs on that team.
Melvin Gordon isn’t on a team with a checkered history with fantasy running backs, but he himself has a worrisome fantasy trend. He has missed games in three of his four NFL seasons. But not just that, he has missed time during the fantasy playoffs in those seasons. Not only that, he is now threatening to hold out.
Now look, we aren’t panicking over the threat of a holdout because we think he will miss significant time. The comparisons to Le’Veon Bell don’t really work, considering Gordon won’t be a free agent and because Bell represents an anomaly rather than a trend. But … a possible holdout does raise our concerns regarding another potential injury. We always prefer players who prepare on the football field rather than elsewhere, and there are no guarantees he arrives in shape, whenever he decides to show up.
For these reasons, we already weren’t looking at Gordon in the middle of the first round, where he was going before the holdout talk emerged. He has dipped toward the end of the first round since. If he decides to forego a contract standoff, expect him to rise again. But … if he continues to slip to, say, the second round, we’re willing to take the risk.
Tyler Boyd had a breakout season last year, topping 1,000 yards and hauling in seven TDs. That’s great. It gets us excited. But … he still is the second option on his own team to A.J. Green, when Green is healthy. His ankle injury will keep him out for the first few weeks of the season, at least. This develop will launch Boyd up the draft board to uncomfortable levels.
Joe Mixon is going to eat up some targets out of the backfield. There is the possibility Tyler Eifert is healthy. Hey, don’t laugh, it happens – use old-timers remember former Jaguars RB Fred Taylor used to get injured all the time, until he didn’t.
Lump in the fact you have a rookie head coach with uninspiring NFL track record, who never found statistical success until he landed as an assistant for Rams head coach Sean McVay, and we have reservations. And fair or not, we can’t forget how dysfunctional the Bengals have been for years, even if this is a new regime. Sometimes, the rot comes from places other than the sidelines.
With some many options at receiver deep into the draft, and players and offenses that deliver more confidence, we would rather take D.J. Moore, Alshon Jeffrey, Allen Robinson, Mike Williams or Jarvis Landry than Boyd with a pick in the 60s, where he normally is drafted. Or we would rather wait on Sterling Shepard, Dante Pettis or Larry Fitzgerald.
On draft day, it pays to play dodgeball with volatile picks. You don’t want to end up with just a convection oven rack.