Amid a very busy sports betting calendar, VSiN hasn’t had much of a chance to report on the WNBA from a market perspective. With the second half of the season now underway, this is a great time to check in.
Money makers: Chicago entered the All-Star break with an 11-7-1 mark against the spread. That tells you how much the market has been in sync with a condensed league. Only a profit of a few units for the top performer. Minnesota was second best at 11-8-1. None of the other 10 teams picked up even 1.5 units after accounting for the standard 10 percent vigorish on lost bets. To this point anyway, not a good season for bettors trying to ride a hot hand.
Money losers: On the other end of the spectrum, preseason favorite Las Vegas was worst against the spread at 7-12-1. Bill Laimbeer’s group is still a virtual co-favorite with Washington to claim the crown. But, the Aces aren’t playing to lofty game-by-game expectations yet (and it’s tough to gain scoreboard distance when you rank last in the league in 3-pointers per game). Atlanta was second-worst at 8-12-1.
The Liberty: New York doesn’t start up again until Thursday night at Dallas. The Liberty are 9-9-1 vs. the point spread according to covers.com, 4-4-1 ATS on the road, 5-5 at home.
The Liberty can be tricky for casual followers to handicap because they play at a very fast pace. At the break, they were averaging 81.6 possessions per game, second only to Las Vegas. Average teams center around 79, slow teams 76.
This means New York’s offense isn’t as good as raw stats would suggest (No. 6 in total points per game, but No. 10 in points per possession in the 12-team league). Unfortunately, the defense has been bad at any speed — worst in the WNBA in points allowed, still a poor No. 11 at points allowed per possession.
Despite sitting just 1¹/₂ games out of a playoff spot (eight of 12 make the brackets), they are next-to-last in point differential. This is not a “playoff-caliber team,” though it occasionally has solid stretches where it can compete at a high level with July upsets of Seattle, Phoenix and Los Angeles.
Finding betting value in remaining action (WNBA teams play 34 regular-season games) could largely be connected to spotting super-surgers and sinking rocks faster than oddsmakers do. Contenders will be motivated to keep winning for playoff positioning (only the top two seeds get to avoid the knockout rounds). Bad teams could turn into blowout fodder against those motivated favorites.
Also, it’s important to monitor injuries and fatigue, and make sure you know who’s in the starting lineup before placing significant bets. And, study box score stats like 2-point defense, rebounding, and turnover differential for energy-related warnings.