In the first of a six-part fantasy draft preview series leading up the NFL season, Fantasy Insanity discusses the war-room gameplan for the draft. Next week: tight ends, defense/specials teams and kickers.
Maybe your favorite holiday is Christmas. Perhaps it is Rosh Hashanah. Could be Fourth of July, or Halloween, Arbor Day or Take Your Pet to Work Day.
The Fantasy Madman observes holidays, too. Every Sunday during the NFL season is a holiday. Even Week 17. Why? Because we live in a fantasy world, Bozo! And preparing for our weekly celebrations of fantasy success requires preparation.
While some of you have enjoyed a break from fantasy football madness, or impatiently awaited its return, the Madman has been hard at work fine-tuning this season’s updated Draft Value Quotient metric.
Our beloved DVQ has undergone some changes this season — most notably, shifting an emphasis on roster requirements to focus on scoring disparity within a position based on those roster requirements. The results are, well, let’s just say we’re re-evaluating our past aversion to drafting top tight ends early.
Having said that, let’s pump the brakes a bit. Instead of top tight end options ranking in the 40-50 range as in year’s past, this year Travis Kelce almost cracks our top 40, coming in at 34th in basic scoring PPR (point-per-reception) leagues. Problem is, you still won’t get him there. We’re not saying jump early on tight ends, but we’re much more forgiving if you choose to do so than we have been the past.
What we do show is a steep dropoff after the top four. Fourth-ranked Alvin Kamara has a DVQ of 33.0, then a whopping gap to fifth-ranked Julio Jones at 78.0. The 50-point difference between Kamara and Jones is equivalent to the disparity between Jones and the 27th-ranked player.
These numbers are based on an average pick value of each draft position using the variance between the first player drafted in a 12-team PPR (point per reception) league and the lowest production among the top 192 projected to be drafted. The value of each pick in the draft is 2.1 adjusted fantasy points per pick. The steep decline in DVQ ratings represents the disparity of individual player projections compared to this average pick value.
So what you get is a parabolic curve. It starts high, with a steep drop, then flattens out are we reach Pick 192. This is why, when you get to our 13th-ranked player, you already see DVQ values topping 100, and why more than 100 of the top 192 have DVQ values between 180-192.
This new methodology does not alter the Madman’s draft strategy. We want to load up on running backs and wide receivers early, grab a tight end when we can in the middle rounds, and target a pair of quarterbacks in the rounds 9-12 range — with rare exception if a big name slips and you have an impressive early fleet of RBs and WRs.
As always, wait until the last couple of rounds for the defense/special teams and a kicker. Kickers are interchangeable and difficult to predict. Defenses can be fickle as well, and often you can stream that position — swapping out for the best available unit each week on waivers.
Don’t be the guy other league members are laughing at for taking a kicker or defense in the eighth, or even the 10th or 12th round. If you’re one of those guys, here’s a tip: We’re not laughing with you, we’re mocking you.
So welcome back to football. Welcome back to the DVQ. Welcome back to the Madman’s madness.