The wild cards in the starting pitching market are Noah Syndergaard and Trevor Bauer. The Mets and Indians have set high prices on the talented righties and are gauging how much they could extract in a starting-pitcher-hungry market.
Outside executives believe the Indians are more likely to trade than the Mets are. The presence of Bauer and Syndergaard would deepen the quality and quantity of the starting pitching market because a strong argument could be made that pair has the best stuff of any potentially available starters — and acquiring teams value stuff for the playoffs perhaps above all other attributes.
With a week to go before the deadline, the feeling was that the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman is the most likely to be traded and that the Mets are motivated to deal Jason Vargas and Zack Wheeler, as long as Wheeler comes through his Friday night start against the Pirates healthy.
The growing sense among interested teams is that the Rangers’ Mike Minor and Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray also will be traded, but that the surging Giants are now more likely to hold onto Madison Bumgarner. Scouts and executives spoken to cautioned about the fluidity of the marketplace — noting, for example, how quickly San Francisco went from a clear seller to potentially holding Bumgarner and others.
Among officials from buying teams, complaints persisted about the return requests for a high-end starter. This is familiar. Buyers carp about asking price. This leads to the annual game of chicken toward the 4 p.m. July 31 deadline to see whether either side is desperate enough to blink.
In this starting pitching market, the sellers generally have leverage. Bauer, Stroman, Minor and Ray all are free agents after next season, so they can be marketed again in the offseason or next July 31. Syndergaard is not a free agent until after the 2021 season. Bumgarner can be given a qualifying offer as some compensation for San Francisco deciding to try to be a wild-card team this season. The Mets can pick up the $8 million option on Vargas and/or qualify Wheeler, though they seemed to be leaning toward wanting to trade both.
The sellers run risk, namely that their assets are worth less the fewer playoff chases for which they are available and that their value could wane due to injury and/or a dip in performance.
The Mets should understand this well. They watched Matt Harvey’s value evaporate almost entirely. Wheeler’s desirability diminished when he needed to go on the injured list with a fatigued shoulder so close to the deadline.
“They have been burnt waiting before,” said an executive for a team seeking pitching.
Does this move the Mets to try to maximize Syndergaard now?
One official from a team seeking pitching said this about Syndergaard’s availability: “I think it is a lot of talk. I don’t think (the Mets) are happy they have to consider moving him, so they are talking in circles. My guess is they don’t move him until the winter.”
Do the Mets have the cohesiveness throughout their ownership/baseball operations to commit to trading Syndergaard and the trust that the right people/processes are in place to generate a suitable return, especially in a year in which Syndergaard has underperformed.
The Astros and Padres are among the interested — and San Diego has perhaps the deepest farm system in the majors. The Yankees tried for Syndergaard in the offseason and would again, but there is strong belief — regardless of what the Mets say — that a deal of this magnitude would not be completed with the other New York team.
The Indians would make such a deal with the Yankees — the teams finalized the Andrew Miller megatrade with one another at the 2016 deadline. And I believe Bauer is the Yankees’ top choice in the market. But the Astros, Phillies and others also are in pursuit.
Cleveland leads the AL wild-card race, but one outside executive said, “They are very progressive. Bauer is available. They are open-minded. Despite what is going on (in the standings), this is just business. No one shows up at their ballpark. They have problems running a business because of financial flexibility, so they will make the best decision within that framework to trade him now or the winter.”
Bauer will be due a $20 million-ish salary next year that does not fit Cleveland’s payroll, especially because attendance is down for a second straight season despite winning the AL Central the past three years. So the Indians would seek a deal that brings them help now (notably a bat anywhere but shortstop), multiple prospects and cost relief. The model is similar to what Tampa Bay did in dealing Chris Archer to Pittsburgh at last year’s deadline for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and prospect Shane Baz.
Like the Mets with Syndergaard, the Indians can wait to see whether a team relents to an acceptable package for Bauer. This provides the greatest intrigue in this trade market.