Divisional strengths and weaknesses often get lost in the shuffle when analyzing Major League Baseball. It’s easy to zoom in too tight when handicapping game-by-game, day-by-day through the season. Bettors can miss out on big-picture dynamics that are influencing results.
The annual All-Star break provides a chance to take stock of overall divisional quality.
For example, the National League West is probably a lot better than you had realized. Sure, you knew the Dodgers were having another great season. They’ll kick off their second stage of 2019 with a 60-32 record. Awesome. But, everyone else in the NL West except San Francisco is over .500 when not playing the Dodgers! Even with the Giants, it’s close — Diamondbacks 42-37, Rockies 42-37, Padres 40-39, Giants 36-40.
No tankers there. Arizona and Colorado might be battling for first place if they played in the NL Central.
On the other end of the spectrum, the AL Central is truly horrible. Minnesota is legitimate. Second-place Cleveland probably isn’t, despite a 50-38 record. The Indians might not be in the wild-card race if they hadn’t gone 13-5 against divisional dregs Detroit and Kansas City. The White Sox are near .500, but that’s thanks to a 13-7 record against the Tigers and Royals.
Detroit and Kansas City are a combined 58-118. Cleveland is 37-33 when not playing them, Chicago 29-37.
A shortcut for evaluating divisional quality is simply to eyeball games over or under .500 in the daily standings. Every game played within a division is both a win and a loss, so those cancel out. A division that’s well over .500 is beating everyone else. One that’s well below .500 is struggling.
Divisional rankings at the moment …
- AL West +22: Powerful Houston leads the way. This group is admittedly helped by having only one tanker.
- NL West +21: Already discussed. Because the NL is +15 in interleague win differential, VSiN would give the nod to this quintet as the best in baseball. A differential of +21 in the superior league is more impressive than the AL West’s +22 against softer competition.
- NL Central +1: An exciting race featuring no great teams and no bad teams. Generic in comparison to other divisions.
- NL East -6: Atlanta’s surge has helped offset Miami’s malaise. Washington’s doing the same for the New York Mets on a lesser scale.
- AL East -11: This is not a reflection on the New York Yankees, who are stellar by all measures. The Bronx Bombers are 43-27 when not playing helpless Baltimore and Toronto despite battling many injuries. Boston is a surprising non-entity, just 35-33 when not playing the O’s or Jays.
- AL Central -27: Off the charts awful, despite Minnesota’s rise to relevance.
When handicapping inter-divisional or interleague games going forward (including the 2018 World Series rematch pitting the Dodgers at the Red Sox Friday-Sunday), be sure you check to see if divisional dynamics are being factored into the money line.