Saturday night’s Phillies-Mets showdown in the NL East (Fox, 7:15 p.m.) gives us a chance to update disappointing campaigns for both teams from a market perspective.
Backers of each would be down money this season if they supported their favorites every time out. Entering the series …
— Philadelphia was down a bit more than five betting units in 2019. Betting markets did adjust fairly quickly to the lack of firepower from the projected divisional dynamo. Frankly, the Phils have been more disappointing to their fans than “minus five units” would suggest.
— The Mets are the worst betting team in the National League, down almost 17 units after losing the finale of the Subway Series to the Yankees. Oddsmakers and sharps greatly overrated this team’s chances to make a run at the playoffs. The market has been slow to price the team as a doormat despite doormat results.
Recent form has been really ugly. The Mets entered the series with a 2-8 record in their previous 10 games, 12-21 in their prior 33. Though Philadelphia recently swept a four-game home series from the Mets, the Phils are 4-15 in their past 19 against everyone else.
The Phillies must be saddened they won’t see the Mets again until the end of August.
Looking ahead:
- Philadelphia, despite a slower than expected start, is still in the thick of the wild-card race. That’s because almost the whole NL is in the thick of the wild-card race. There were recent days when all but three of the 15 teams in the senior circuit were between .450 and .530 in win percentage.
Bryce Harper continues to be the elephant in the room, just not on the field trampling pitchers. As we recently documented in this space, he’s hitting well below expectations in a high-scoring season. If he does regain something closer to peak career form, the Phillies have plenty of time to become relevant and bettors can cash in.
Important to note the National League’s extreme parity could help launch the Phils (or any other contender) to a big second half. Any team putting its pieces together productively could surprise the market, suddenly making itself better than everyone but the Dodgers.
The Mets can rejoice their recent gauntlet is almost over. As we discussed before it began, their schedule heading up to the All-Star break is brutal. The Mets probably aren’t as bad as recent form makes it look.
Their schedule softens dramatically in the first 25 games after the break, when they have seven games with the Marlins, six with the Pirates, four with the Giants, three with the Padres, and three with the White Sox. Two games at Minnesota will be the only ones against a likely playoff team in that stretch.
There’s a chance to make a run toward .500 against that softer slate. And if a managerial change helps eliminate a down-in-the-dumps attitude, there’s even a chance for a hot stretch that would reward investors.