Amanda Nunes is the UFC women’s champion at featherweight (145 pounds) and bantamweight (135 pounds). She is undefeated in her past eight fights, including a KO of previously untouchable Cris Cyborg at 145.
Nunes returns to fight Holly Holm on Saturday (ESPN+, 10 p.m.) for the bantamweight title, and I feel the lower weight could be a factor for Nunes and an opportunity for bettors.
Nunes likes to work off a powerful jab, but it will be on the mat where she will hold the advantage. The question is: Will she use the ground to her benefit or has she become intoxicated with her power-striking after beating Cyborg?
Holm is expertly equipped at striking and kickboxing, yet she has only an adequate ground game, so it’s important for her to keep this fight standing. Nunes, brimming with confidence (overconfidence perhaps), will come out aggressively, looking to knock Holm’s head off. This may play right into the hands of Holm, an effective counterstriker.
Holm must utilize her experience, athleticism and constant movement with precision counterstriking to frustrate Nunes and force her into mistakes. Holm has fought five-round championship fights previously, and it’s my judgment that she will beat Nunes in a five-round decision.
The play: Holm +450 (half unit) over Nunes (-450); Over 4 ¹/₂ rounds (1 unit).